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Live Updates

29

Jul 2026

英镑对美元小幅走高，市场静候美联储决议，加息概率成焦点

英镑/美元亚市震荡上行至1.3300，受美元走软与议息前仓位再平衡推动。市场定价：本次按兵不动为主，即刻加息隐含概率30.5%，9月加息概率76.6%。

29

Jul 2026

随着油价飙升推升通胀担忧，金价在美联储决议前持稳于4,000美元附近

金价六日低点后稳守4,000美元关口，美元回落与油价走强推升通胀预期，市场押注7月/9月加息概率上行；技术偏空，建议短期期权对冲下行并捕捉波动。

29

Jul 2026

在美联储决议临近且中东紧张局势提振美元需求之际，欧元/美元维持在1.1390附近

EUR/USD守稳1.1390，美元在FOMC前走弱但地缘风险限跌。衍生品暗示9月加息概率高。建议买入短期限跨式/宽跨式，并以布伦特看涨期权对冲油价冲击。

29

Jul 2026

澳大利亚第二季度CPI回落0.1%，强化市场对澳洲联储降息预期并拖累澳元走弱

澳洲二季度CPI环比意外降0.1%较预期低0.8个百分点，通胀骤弱触发RBA转鸽预期，澳元承压、国债期货走强，权益估值或获重估。

29

Jul 2026

澳大利亚第二季度CPI低于预期，缓解市场对澳洲联储加息押注并拖累澳元

澳洲二季度CPI同比3.8%显著低于预期4.1%，通胀降温超预期引发政策转向押注：RBA加息压力减弱，利率期货偏多、澳元承压，澳股有望受益反弹。

29

Jul 2026

美国与沙特对伊拉克实施打击及伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队导弹声明推升WTI油价，霍尔木兹海峡风险再度升温

中东冲突升级推升风险溢价，WTI反弹4%至81.60美元；霍尔木兹海峡受扰恐冲击供给。建议配置短期限看涨期权、牛市价差及跨式策略捕捉波动，并以指数看跌期权对冲通胀再定价风险。

29

Jul 2026

受油价反弹、中东紧张局势及东京CPI临近影响，美元/日元回落至163.70附近

美元/日元回落至163.70，油价反弹与中东冲突重燃推升通胀溢价压制日元；东京CPI与美联储加息概率高企引爆波动，建议期权多头及对冲布局。

29

Jul 2026

澳元/美元跌破0.7000，澳洲联储行长在CPI公布前打压进一步收紧押注

澳元/美元跌至0.7000下方、G10最弱；RBA表态偏谨慎，未强化加息预期。市场聚焦即将公布CPI与FOMC，关键阻力0.7000、支撑0.6950/0.6900。

29

Jul 2026

澳元走低，因6月CPI低于预期，令市场对澳洲联储进一步收紧政策的押注降温

澳洲6月CPI同比回落至3.8%低于预期，核心通胀持平，澳元应声走弱。通胀降温削弱RBA再加息定价，AUD/USD或下探0.6900。

29

Jul 2026

通胀侵蚀美元购买力，黄金走强，交易员转向期权策略

罐装番茄汤揭示美元购买力长期走弱：脱锚金本位后累计贬值约88%，2021年以来通胀约24%–29%。黄金大幅上行，建议以贵金属及期权对冲通胀。

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