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Live Updates

17

Aug 2026

以色列与真主党相互打击推升地缘政治风险溢价，令原油及波动率交易员保持警戒

以黎空袭再起、加沙谈判胶着推升地缘政治溢价，原油与OVX或再上行；WTI回落难续，建议做多波动率、逢低配置并分散至黄金及避险货币。

17

Aug 2026

新西兰银行卡零售销售回升削弱市场对新西兰联储降息的押注，提升纽元上行空间

新西兰7月电子卡零售销售同比跃升至3.4%，消费韧性突显：RBNZ激进降息预期或再定价，掉期与外汇期权宜增配纽元上行敞口。

17

Aug 2026

新西兰7月银行卡零售销售反弹，令市场对新西兰联储大幅降息的预期降温

新西兰7月电子卡零售环比转升1.3%逆转前值-1.4%，消费韧性提振纽元并缓和RBNZ激进降息预期；关注交叉盘做多及短端利率与曲线再定价。

17

Aug 2026

新西兰食品价格通胀7月放缓，强化市场对新西兰央行降息的预期

新西兰7月食品价格指数环比仅升0.1%，通胀动能显著降温，或推动RBNZ更鸽派并强化降息定价；策略上关注做空NZD、买入短端利率与看跌期权。

17

Aug 2026

新西兰服务业活动小幅回升，抑制市场对新西兰联储降息预期

新西兰BusinessNZ服务业PSI 7月升至50.9略越荣枯线，释放企稳信号：RBNZ降息紧迫性下降，纽元或区间震荡，期权波动率偏高或利于卖权金策略。

15

Aug 2026

投机资金流向显示：黄金净多头头寸激增，WTI原油空头增仓，欧元持仓回落

资金再现分化：黄金净多头猛增至五年95分位，拥挤交易警报拉响；WTI仓位降至8分位与油价背离，轧空或爆发；欧元4分位待反转。

15

Aug 2026

美国国债收益率上升：疲软零售销售拖累美元，地缘政治谨慎情绪下油价趋稳

零售销售意外萎缩引发资产重定价：美债收益率回升、美元指数走弱；地缘风险支撑WTI坚挺。关注SOFR及能源/美元期权对冲，捕捉波动溢价。

15

Aug 2026

墨西哥比索走强推动美元/墨西哥比索跌至两年低点，疲软美国数据降温美联储加息预期

墨西哥比索走强拖累USD/MXN跌破17创两年新低；美零售与信心走弱压制美元、强化9月暂停预期。利差支撑套息，波动率或上行，关注Banxico纪要。

15

Aug 2026

MSCI拟在新的非经营性筛选标准下考虑将Strategy和Metaplanet剔除出全球指数

压轴在此：MSCI拟以“非经营性”框架将BTC金库型Strategy、Metaplanet等自GIMI/ACWI IMI剔除；若通过，或触发被动资金减持、波动率抬升，征求至9月30日。

15

Aug 2026

在央行注入流动性推动10年期国债收益率跌破1.70%之际，人民币升至16个月高位

人民币升至6.7424创阶段新高，美元走弱与美债利率回落共振。央行维持适度宽松未释降息降准信号，国债收益率破1.70%触发汇率与利率交易机遇。

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