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4

May 2026

美元/加元升至1.3617，上涨0.22%，霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势提振美元

霍尔木兹海峡危机升温，避险资金推高美元，USD/CAD 走强至1.36附近。油价上扬利好加元仍落后。通胀与政策预期升温，周五美加就业数据成关键引爆点。

4

May 2026

法国巴黎银行经济学家认为，英国通胀将支撑英伦银行持续收紧政策；随着季度增幅消退，经济增长到2026年将减半

英国陷滞胀风险：BNP料2026增长降至0.7%、通胀触顶3.6%。英银或加息50bp，10年期国债收益率高企；英镑料守1.35，衍生品需防下行。

4

May 2026

美国3月工厂订单按月增长1.5%，高于市场预期的0.5%增长

爆点来了：美国3月工厂订单环比猛增1.5%，远超预期0.5%。制造业韧性推翻降温论，压低夏末前降息概率；利好美元与工业股，利空美债。

4

May 2026

白银周初走低，徘徊于73.50美元附近，因美元走强与美债收益率上升而下跌2.41%

白银本周跳水：美元与美债收益率走强吸走避险资金，降息预期再延后。霍尔木兹风险未托价；跌破28美元警报。策略：买Put护仓、卖30上方Call Spread。

4

May 2026

道明证券预计美国劳动力指标将趋于正常化，预测非农新增8万人、失业率4.3%，薪资温和增长

美非农或仅增8万、失业率4.3%，薪资温和回升至3.7%：服务业PMI小跌、职位空缺续降。伊朗冲突推高能源价，但GDP反弹、AI投资支撑，美联储或继续按兵不动。

4

May 2026

德国商业银行的普菲斯特认为，随着欧元走强且市场对瑞士央行加息的预期在言论引导下减弱，欧元兑瑞郎（EUR/CHF）料将很快上升

欧元若反弹、市场延后押注瑞士央行加息，欧元兑瑞郎未来数月或上冲约2分。策略：买近平价看涨期权押注夏末前窗口，风险限权利金。

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V.T.M. Integrated Services Limited 于英国注册成立,公司注册号为17416220。注册地址:C/O Greenwoods Legal Services Limited, Queens House, 55-56 Lincoln's Inn Fields, 伦敦,英国, WC2A 3LJ。V.T.M. Integrated Services Limited 代表VT Markets集团内其他持牌实体提供服务,包括但不限于支付服务。本实体不提供受监管的金融产品,亦不提供交易服务。

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