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4

May 2026

疑似日本干预后，美元/日元徘徊在157.00附近，从亚洲时段低点155.71回升

美元/日元周一157附近横盘，盘中触及155.71后反弹，引爆日本或已干预猜测。机构指或动用5.48万亿日元；若逼近160恐再出手。美数据与中东风险撑美元。

4

May 2026

法国兴业银行Kunal Kundu表示，印度3月工业生产指数（IIP）同比增长4.1%，增速放缓，因核心行业下滑、电力增长走软

印度3月IIP增速放缓至4.1%创五个月低，八大核心行业转负。化肥暴跌、电力转弱。制造业分化，资本品较强，但化工电子与PCB供应链现隐忧。

4

May 2026

道明证券经济学家预计美联储将按兵不动至9月，并密切关注伊朗冲突与通胀走势

伊朗冲突与油价高企令通胀顽固，美联储或按兵不动至9月，前瞻指引趋“双向”。市场需重估夏季降息押注，关注威廉姆斯讲话与波动率、曲线变平机会。

4

May 2026

德国商业银行阮氏称，疑似干预推升日元，但市场质疑日本央行抗通胀决心及涨势持续性

传日本或周五干预撑日元，反弹能撑多久成焦点。走势看伊朗战事、油价通胀与日银取态；低波动下可低成本布局日元期权。

4

May 2026

纽约梅隆银行（BNY）Bob Savage：美国为霍尔木兹海峡护航缓解担忧，油价随之波动，但袭击再度升温

油价上演“海峡风险VS增产计划”拉锯：美护航令油价先跌后因袭击回升。通行量骤减推升恐慌指数，布伦特守108。OPEC+拟6月小幅增产，波动或更剧。

4

May 2026

法国兴业银行警告：斯塔默面临地方选举风险升温；若成绩不佳，或将引发9月酝酿已久的党魁挑战

5月7日地方选举逼近，斯塔默政治风险升温：若工党失利或遭逼宫至9月。博彩估66% 2026前下台，英镑与波动率承压，期权跨式可对冲。

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