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29

May 2026

美元/日元守在159上方，日本创纪录干预规模达11.7万亿日元，汇价涨幅在160附近受限

财务省史上最大11.7万亿日元干预筑牢美元/日元160“天花板”，汇价或区间震荡；油价回落助探155，但缺央行鹰派难破。策略：卖波动率。

29

May 2026

德国通胀在初值预估中降温，强化市场对欧洲央行降息的押注，并令欧元区债券收益率承压

德国5月CPI初值降至2.6%低预期，HICP同走软，欧元反应平淡。市场押注ECB降息：OIS约85%概率，短端收益率或下行；期权低波动，宜长久期欧元看跌。

29

May 2026

德国5月CPI低于预期，强化市场对欧洲央行降息押注并拖累欧元

德国5月CPI同比2.6%低于预期2.8%，去通胀加速：欧央行7月降息概率升破70%；欧元承压更偏空，股市受惠降息预期，DAX与Euro Stoxx 50看涨。

29

May 2026

德国5月HICP低于预期，强化市场对欧洲央行降息押注并打压欧元

德国5月HICP同比2.7%低预期，打破通胀粘性叙事。市场押注ECB更鸽，Q3前降息概率或近70%。欧元承压可买EUR/USD看跌；DAX看涨期权捕捉利率下行红利。

29

May 2026

德国HICP通胀放缓至2.6%，强化市场对欧洲央行降息预期并推动持仓调整

德国5月HICP按年仅升2.6%逊预期，通胀降温提早点燃ECB夏季降息想象：看多德债期货押收益率回落，布局DAX看涨，同时偏空欧元兑美元。

29

May 2026

南非贸易顺差收窄，兰特承压加剧，USD/ZAR押注升温

南非4月贸易顺差骤缩至151.6亿兰特，兰特或转弱。港口物流、铁路低效与铂金下跌拖累出口；策略：做多USD/ZAR远期与看涨期权，关注SARB偏鹰风险。

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