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29

May 2026

加元走软，首季GDP持平推高市场对加拿大央行降息的押注

加拿大Q1 GDP停滞、年化转负远逊预期，3月再跌拖累加元；USD/CAD冲上1.382。降息预期飙升、隐波走高，汇价或奔1.40，油价成关键。

29

May 2026

美国4月批发库存增长0.5%，低于预期，库存累积步伐降温

美国4月批发库存仅增0.5%低预期，补库温和或显需求韧性；叠加通胀偏高，市场或低估“利率更高更久”。股市偏多，期权卖虚值看跌、低VIX布局对冲。

29

May 2026

美国货物贸易逆差收窄至824亿美元，提振美元看涨押注与期权策略

美国4月商品逆差收窄至824亿美元，出口韧性与进口降温并存，为美元突破105.5添催化。策略关注UUP看涨、XLI偏多，XRT对冲；通胀分歧推升波动。

29

May 2026

加拿大3月GDP下滑0.1%，强化降息押注并拖累加元

加拿大3月实际GDP意外按月跌0.1%，显现经济降温。通胀回落助BoC降息，或压低加元。布局USD/CAD看涨、做多BAX，并买XIU保护性看跌。

29

May 2026

加拿大首季GDP年化下滑0.1%，加央行降息押注明显升温加元遭抛售

加拿大首季GDP年化跌0.1%远逊预期，震撼市场！降息押注升温或拖累加元、推升债券；USD/CAD破1.38，TSX承压，期权与国债期货成对冲机会。

29

May 2026

加拿大第一季度GDP停滞，市场押注降息升温，迎接6月加拿大央行会议

加拿大Q1 GDP按季零增长止跌回稳，但动能停滞。BoC 6月降息概率升至75%+，叠加通胀降温，料加元中期承压、TSX区间震荡，反弹宜做空。

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