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29

Jun 2026

英国抵押贷款批准量不及预期，住房市场前景趋弱，支撑英国央行转向鸽派立场

英国5月抵押贷款批准量5.62万笔不及预期，揭示高利率压制住房融资与增长前景；市场或重估英银加息终点，英镑及富时250面临下行与波动抬升风险。

29

Jun 2026

辛特拉论坛成焦点：拉加德将引导欧洲央行，收益率曲线仍计入加息溢价

辛特拉论坛或成欧央行“鹰派纠偏”拐点：市场仅计入至明年4月加息27bp或偏乐观；通胀粘性、就业稳健及BIS警示，短端下行空间受限。

29

Jun 2026

伊朗与美国紧张局势缓和，美股期货在欧洲时段走高；市场焦点转向美联储与非农就业数据

华盛顿—德黑兰缓和提振风险偏好，美股期指全线上扬，纳指领涨。关注非农与12月加息定价近80%压制。把握科技纾压反弹，灵活运用短期期权。

29

Jun 2026

6月FOMC会议后亚洲货币走弱，掉期利差扩大；泰铢、韩元和比索领跌

FOMC后美债利率维持高位推升利差，亚洲货币分化走弱：THB/KRW/PHP承压，INR/VND相对稳健。关注USD/THB看涨、卖出PHP期货及INR多头对冲策略。

29

Jun 2026

西班牙5月零售销售增速加快，强化IBEX 35看涨逻辑

西班牙5月零售销售同比升至1.3%，消费动能回暖且失业率降至11.5%提供支撑；看多IBEX35并布局看涨期权，警惕通胀粘性压制降息预期。

29

Jun 2026

西班牙6月CPI飙升令欧洲央行降息前景蒙阴影，欧元走强并施压股市

西班牙6月CPI环比飙升0.6%超预期，通胀粘性抬头或压降ECB降息预期：欧元趋强、欧股承压，德债收益率上行与VSTOXX波动走阔可期。

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