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7

Jul 2026

日本领先指标不及预期，加剧日本央行审慎态度及日元承压风险

日本5月先行经济指数116.8小幅不及预期，释放增长趋缓信号；通胀2.1%令日银加息更趋谨慎，政策分化或压制日元，美元/日元或冲150。

7

Jul 2026

日本同时景气指数小幅回升，提振日经指数前景并强化日元政策转向押注

日本5月同步指标升至118.5，经济温和修复信号强化；利好企业盈利与日股续强，关注日经225上破4万；政策转向预期升温，日元或获支撑。

7

Jul 2026

印尼外汇储备升至1456亿美元，流动性缓冲增强缓解政策压力

印尼6月外汇储备升至1,456亿美元、覆盖进口6.7个月，外部流动性边际改善；通胀2.8%压低加息预期，印尼盾波动或收敛，股市与利率交易机会显现。

7

Jul 2026

美元/日元回落至161.70，套息交易持续支撑且霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势推升美元

美元兑日元回落至161.65附近，利差驱动套息交易与避险美元需求托底，日方干预仍偏口头；FOMC纪要或强化“高利率更久”，逢低布局成焦点。

7

Jul 2026

霍尔木兹袭击事件后WTI小幅走高，但沙特减产与OPEC+增产限制油价上行空间

霍尔木兹事件短推WTI至69.20美元/桶，但航运恢复、OPEC+增产叠加沙特大幅下调OSP，供给过剩主导；把握波动率抬升窗口，卖出虚值看涨期权押注油价回落。

7

Jul 2026

在霍尔木兹紧张局势支撑美元、市场对欧洲央行加息押注降温之际，欧元/美元守住1.1400上方

欧元兑美元守稳1.1400上方区间震荡：霍尔木兹风险支撑美元、限制上行；美弱就业与油价回落压美元；欧区通胀降温削弱欧元催化，关注1.1325支撑。

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