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18

Jul 2026

道指跌破52,000点后反弹，受鹰派加息预期及财报季临近影响

道指震荡回落至5.225万点附近，宏观数据分化叠加密歇根信心回升、通胀预期走弱；利率期货转向鹰派定价。技术面52,600承压，失守52,000或下探51,400。

18

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎自0.8150高点回落，瑞郎走强，长期上行趋势仍保持完好

美元兑瑞郎冲高回落，0.8150受阻暗示动能降温但上行结构未破。交易或转区间震荡，宜铁鹰/宽跨收权利金；破0.8150则看向0.8300，切多头期权。

18

Jul 2026

贝克休斯数据显示：美国石油钻机数增至452座，超预期，令原油价格前景承压

贝克休斯美国活跃油钻机452座超预期446，供给扩张预期升温或压制WTI；建议以短期限看跌期权、跨式策略对冲下行与波动，并收紧止损。

18

Jul 2026

美元指数在住房韧性抵消建筑许可及工业产出走弱影响下，持稳于100.70附近

美元指数回吐涨幅持平100.70，住宅开工与信心回升对冲许可及产出疲弱；通胀预期回落、技术阻力101.03支撑100.65，建议区间策略铁鹰及看跌期权。

17

Jul 2026

欧元/美元维持稳定，油价飙升重塑通胀与利率前景

中东风险推升油价周涨12%重燃“更久紧缩”，欧元/美元1.1438震荡周线微升；市场押注欧央行9月加息、美联储12月概率75%，建议原油与外汇期权对冲。

17

Jul 2026

英镑下挫，中东原油飙升推升美元；市场上调美联储加息概率

中东冲突推升油价与美元避险，英镑连续下挫至1.3449但周仍涨0.4%。美通胀预期回落却难改10月加息概率61%，期权跨式与对冲成关键。

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