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20

Jul 2026

随着美元走强且欧洲央行决议临近，欧元/美元下行风险加剧

警惕EUR/USD空头加速：美元指数反弹至100.77，日线看跌旗形压制，跌破1.1393或直指1.1300；叠加ECB按兵不动与通胀粘性，欧元承压。

20

Jul 2026

新西兰CPI预计低于新西兰央行预测，利率互换定价进一步加息，支撑纽元

新西兰二季度CPI料回升但略低于RBNZ预测，通胀黏性支撑鹰派路径；掉期隐含年内再加50bp、12个月100bp至3.50%，纽元及相关期权策略或受益。

20

Jul 2026

澳元升破0.7000，中东紧张局势缓和及美国通胀走软拖累美元

地缘风险降温与美通胀回落压制美元，AUD/USD重返0.7000并现技术看涨；关注澳就业数据与铁矿石价格支撑，衍生品可布局期权多头与跨式策略。

20

Jul 2026

中东与乌克兰冲突升级加剧供应担忧，油气及电力价格走高

美伊、俄乌冲突推升地缘溢价，叠加库存低位与航运受扰，油气电全面走强；布伦特迫近90美元。柴油裂解价差创新高，期权做多与现货升水策略受关注。

20

Jul 2026

卢比走弱，海外资金持续外流、油价波动及对美联储政策预期支撑美元兑印度卢比（USD/INR）维持强势

资本外流与霍尔木兹风险共振，卢比小幅走弱，USD/INR守96.46、上看97.10；建议做多美元期权、Nifty保护性看跌对冲，并以区间策略交易MCX原油。

20

Jul 2026

美元涨势停滞推动金价小幅走高；美国通胀降温，交易员关注突破4,050美元关口

金价周一温和反弹，美元动能回落、油价回调及通胀走软降温加息预期；技术维持下降三角，聚焦4,050破位，上看4,100/4,210，失守3,941则转弱。央行购金提供底部支撑。

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