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24

Jul 2026

欧元区7月PMI意外回升提振增长前景，油价逼近100美元引发全球利率重新定价

欧元区7月PMI初值全线回升提振风险偏好，但油价逼近100美元叠加地缘供应冲击推升收益率，Fed加息定价升温，央行路径与波动对冲成焦点。

24

Jul 2026

英国CPI低于货币政策委员会（MPC）预测，油价冲击或威胁通胀回升至3%水平

英国6月CPI回落至2.6%引发“降温”错觉，但能源供给冲击再起或推升通胀重返3%常态；STIR宜偏空，配置SONIA空头、通胀互换与布油看涨对冲。

24

Jul 2026

在美联储鹰派押注与油价冲击推升美元之际，欧元走弱，欧洲央行保持警惕

欧元兑美元跌至1.1370，美元受美债收益率飙升及加息预期升温支撑。中东断供推高油价与通胀。建议：买入EUR/USD看跌、做空短端利率期货、配置原油看涨与欧元宽跨。

24

Jul 2026

墨西哥失业率小幅升至2.8%，市场对墨西哥央行降息预期升温

墨西哥6月经季调失业率升至2.8%，劳动力市场趋软信号强化。紧缩效应显现，Banxico或加快降息；套息交易降温，建议做多USD/MXN期权并布局接收端互换。

24

Jul 2026

墨西哥6月失业率小幅升至2.9%，加剧比索承压并升温降息押注

墨西哥6月失业率意外升至2.9%，劳动力市场边际走弱或促Banxico更偏鸽，利差收窄压制MXN；USD/MXN或走强，期权、远期及TIIE收固定可布局。

24

Jul 2026

在美联储加息押注限制涨幅、地缘政治风险推升油价之际，金价持稳于4,060美元附近

金价周五企稳至4,060美元，受美元与美债收益率回落支撑，但9月加息概率78%压制反弹；地缘冲突与关税添通胀扰动，建议铁鹰锁定3,950–4,180区间。

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