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29

Jul 2026

美联储将基准利率维持在3.75%，市场评估通胀前景与波动率交易走势

美联储维持基准利率3.75%不变符合预期，政策不确定性下降。隐含波动率或回落，SOFR期权权利金受压。可关注卖波、曲线陡峭化及欧元日元看涨期权策略。

29

Jul 2026

墨西哥比索走弱，海湾局势紧张推升油价，市场静待美联储决议

海湾冲突推升油价、风险偏好降温，墨西哥比索走弱，USD/MXN至17.51。美联储决议前加息定价41%升温；期权、利率与对冲策略成焦点。

29

Jul 2026

加拿大央行会议纪要提示通胀风险，临近美联储决议，美元/加元维持在1.4100下方

美联储决议前夕，加央行维持2.25%并淡化能源扰动；关税冲击与利差走阔压制加元，美元/加元蓄势上破，期权多头瞄准1.4250。

29

Jul 2026

在美联储鹰派立场与油价冲击支撑美元买盘之际，美元/瑞郎在年内高位附近企稳

USD/CHF连涨八日逼近0.8200，押注美联储偏鹰与油价推升通胀预期、利差扩张压制瑞郎。策略：做多并配牛市价差，止损0.8120。

29

Jul 2026

伊朗冲突不确定性推升市场对美联储鹰派押注，但沃什或限制美元上行空间

美国就业“韧性降温”，加息急迫性不足；伊朗冲突抬升利率定价但能见度低。FOMC料偏鹰且避前瞻指引，美元或冲高回吐；建议短期做多欧元看涨、对冲油价，并配置9月SOFR。

29

Jul 2026

美联储FOMC会议前美元小幅走弱，市场计入加息概率为33%；美元指数（DXY）101.10成关注焦点

FOMC前美元偏弱，OIS隐含加息33%而机构评估更低；框架评估期政策料按兵不动、前瞻指引缺位或施压DXY。关注101.10，跌破恐触发加速下行。

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