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4

Aug 2026

澳元/美元料将区间震荡，0.7075上方限制涨幅，澳洲联储决议前上行受阻

AUD/USD 冲高0.7069后回落至0.6984，被指过度调整；短线料0.6980-0.7030区间震荡，关键阻力0.7075。1-3周偏多但动能有限；跌破0.6980则上行压力缓解。重点关注RBA决议风险。

4

Aug 2026

美元指数持稳于100附近，霍尔木兹局势紧张及美联储加息预期支撑美元需求

美元指数逼近100关口并连涨，地缘风险与9月加息预期共振推升避险需求。建议配置美元看涨期权、原油牛市价差及美股虚值看跌对冲。

4

Aug 2026

随着日本央行干预引发汇价跌破200日均线，CHF/JPY“三重顶”形态进一步强化

CHF/JPY罕见三重顶确认，BOJ干预引发急跌并下破200日均线，疑似强平去杠杆。195.40–196.00成多空分水岭：收复缓压，失守则偏空延续。

4

Aug 2026

道明证券认为，日本干预后美元/日元仍将维持在153上方，年末目标159

870亿美元干预致美元/日元回落至200日均线，TD称未改区间机制；动能降温或探153但守稳。建议逢跌布局净多与多头期权，年末目标159。

4

Aug 2026

尽管供应趋紧，布伦特原油与柴油期货下跌，交易员转向买入看涨期权押注反弹

布伦特近月跌逾7%、柴油价格暴挫，与俄禁令、红海扰动及航运瓶颈下的实货偏紧脱节；警惕“过剩”错配回补，建议配置布伦特看涨期权或牛市价差布局反弹。

4

Aug 2026

全球股市创历史新高，周期股轮动与软件板块反弹抵消亚洲科技股疑虑

MSCI多指数刷新高但以轮动驱动：软件周涨16%、油价回落助周期与消费；亚洲受半导体忧虑承压。低VIX可用期权多空与领口策略捕捉分化并对冲回撤。

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