Live Updates

7

Aug 2026

泰国维持2026年通胀预测不变；油价、泰铢与厄尔尼诺风险影响前景及对冲策略

泰商务部维持2026年通胀1.5%–2.5%预测，隐含一季度负值后二季度跳升；油价、汇率与厄尔尼诺成关键风险。交易端建议布局泰铢期权、原油及利率互换对冲。

7

Aug 2026

由于伊朗收紧霍尔木兹海峡通行限制，风险溢价再度升温，WTI油价攀升至76.50美元附近

WTI反弹至76.50美元，伊朗—阿曼通行框架细节偏紧：拟禁“敌对”船只过霍尔木兹并罚至货值20%，战前流量难复，风险溢价重定价。

7

Aug 2026

澳元/美元坚守0.7000上方，美元走强；霍尔木兹海峡原油风险与美国非农就业数据成市场焦点

澳元兑美元跌0.36%仍守0.7000，美元指数逼近100压制反弹；霍尔木兹风险推油价却成增长拖累。聚焦中国贸数与非农，期权布局破位与波动。

7

Aug 2026

道指在罕见连续两日突破后回落至布林带上轨内，射击之星形态发出预警

道指连续两日收盘越过2倍布林带上轨并现射击之星，RSI超买且广度中性；历史统计指向1-20日温和回撤2%-4%，宜布局DIA偏空/中性期权对冲。

6

Aug 2026

美联储在分歧投票中维持利率不变，Warsh 缩减前瞻指引；美债收益率上行，通胀信誉遭质疑

7月FOMC按兵不动但内部分歧加剧，Warsh收缩指引引发沟通范式转向。长端利率上行、实际利率近零，黄金走强；建议以跨式、空长债及贵金属期权捕捉波动与通胀风险。

6

Aug 2026

韩国央行通过国内供应与黄金ETF重启购金，央行需求维持高位

全球央行净购金近四年逼近千吨。韩国央行时隔13年重启购金：拟以现货价向本土矿商买金并配置黄金ETF，或收紧流通供给、夯实金价结构性底部。

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