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11

Aug 2026

汇丰银行称美日开展日元支撑操作后美元/日元波动区间或将扩大，实际利率为负限制下行空间

日美财长部7月末协同干预压制USD/JPY并警示再出手：汇丰预计汇价在148-156宽幅震荡，波动率抬升；建议以跨式/铁鹰捕捉波动，警惕空头挤压。

11

Aug 2026

中东风险上升推动石油公司走强；欧洲天然气价格飙升，糖和谷物上涨

地缘扰动重塑大宗风险溢价：油价因美伊预期降温、伊拉克装船下滑走强；柴油裂解飙升；欧洲气价反弹库存告急；糖空回补；乌克兰谷物出口下调推涨。

11

Aug 2026

原油价格飙升推升通胀押注，市场静待美国CPI数据；美联储9月加息概率上升

美7月CPI前全球资产区间震荡；油价因霍尔木兹僵局飙升抬升通胀预期，推动9月加息概率超50%。建议布局原油看涨、利率空头对冲与黄金牛差，科技股用跨式捕捉波动。

11

Aug 2026

随着外汇波动率回落，美元指数（DXY）料维持区间震荡；美债供给与CPI数据成研判美联储政策走向关键指标

8月中旬外汇波动率回落，市场对美联储9月加息25bp定价五五开，DXY料99.5-100震荡；然长债收益率上沿叠加企业债供给放量，或触发债市抛售与波动率急升。

11

Aug 2026

黄金多头重拾动能：突破4355/60后上看4495/4500，关注100日均线

黄金突破4355/4360触发买入信号，动能转多，目标先看100日均线4386-4390并上探4495/4500；跌破4382或下破4360则转防守，关注4370及4340/4330买点。

11

Aug 2026

西班牙3个月期国库券拍卖收益率小幅上升，暗示短期融资成本走高

西班牙国库3个月期国库券拍卖收益率升至2.387%，较前次上行2.1个基点；短端曲线温和抬升，暗示短期融资成本走高并牵动欧元区利率预期。

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