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14

Aug 2026

诺德亚预计欧洲央行将通过连续三个季度各上调25个基点，将存款机制利率升至3%，并推动收益率上行

警惕欧央行利率上行再定价：Nordea预期存款利率按季度三次各25bp上调至3%，中东局势左右节奏；建议配置短端利率看跌期权、payer swap及做空Bund。

14

Aug 2026

美元/瑞郎触及100%阻力弧线，涨势动能减弱，汇价或下探0.8040

USD/CHF四小时受阻于Arc Cycle 100%阻力弧，看涨动能衰竭，周期顶部约束强化；若持续受压，或下探0.8040（0.786弧）。利差收窄支撑瑞郎；破位收盘则否定看跌。

14

Aug 2026

加拿大制造业销售超预期，降温市场对加拿大央行降息押注，支撑加元

加拿大6月制造业销售环比+0.1%逆转预期下滑，释放工业韧性信号；降息紧迫性边际减弱，支撑加元与短端利率上行，关注BAX回吐及近端CAD期权机会。

14

Aug 2026

英镑走强，市场重新定价美联储9月政策预期，美元走弱

英镑兑美元升至1.3533、DXY回落99.70，因市场重定价美联储9月“按兵不动”概率至65%。把握美元走弱：建议布局GBP/USD看涨期权及牛市价差，并以DXY跨式对冲波动。

14

Aug 2026

在黄金上涨与债券资金流入推动下，南非兰特领涨中东欧-中东-非洲新兴市场货币，美元/南非兰特逼近16.00

南非兰特本月领跑CEEMEA，兑美元即期升约2.4%、总回报2.7%；逼近16关口，受金价走强、美联储鸽派预期及外资债券231亿兰特净流入驱动，风险偏好仍主导。

14

Aug 2026

金价自周内低点反弹，美元走软与疲弱美国数据削弱美联储加息预期

金价自周内低点4311美元反弹至4372美元，受美元走弱及美联储9月加息预期降温支撑；零售与就业数据偏弱强化增长放缓，关注4386阻力与4000支撑。

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