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4

Mar 2026

法国2月HCOB综合PMI符合预期，为49.9，显示整体商业活动接近稳定

法国2月综合PMI 49.9贴近50，经济触底但未转强：波动或降，可卖CAC40短期期权收权利金；通胀回落强化2026降息预期，关注Euribor期货与银行股看涨，警惕服务业转弱并用Euro STOXX50看跌对冲。

4

Mar 2026

法国HCOB服务业PMI在2月符合预期，录得49.6，表明服务业活动继续收缩

法国2月服务业PMI 49.6持平预期，仍低于50，活动继续收缩。惊喜缺席或令CAC40难大涨；低波动环境下，卖出期权、铁鹰等区间策略更占优。

4

Mar 2026

2月份意大利HCOB服务业PMI超出预期，达到52.3，高于预期的52

意大利2月服务业PMI升至52.3超预期，增长动能延续！利多FTSE MIB与欧元，或推升国债收益率、扩大BTP-Bund利差，交易可偏多股汇、偏空BTP。

4

Mar 2026

三角形破位后，Adobe 的强劲抛售延续至第五浪，逼近 240，或在此形成支撑

Adobe 跌破三角后延续第五浪下跌，逼近240目标位。240或企稳但未见底；需强劲反弹并重上311更可靠。若再探205，205–230成关键支撑，C浪或末期。

4

Mar 2026

澳元/美元在欧洲早盘交易中企稳于0.7030附近，仍低于0.7050；看涨基调持续

AUD/USD 跌幅收窄仍连跌，0.7030 附近。上升通道未破但短线偏空：低于 9 日 EMA、RSI 回落。关注 0.7067/0.7147 阻力，0.6950/0.6929 支撑，失守恐探 0.6400。

4

Mar 2026

ING的Chris Turner表示，美国数据或将抑制美联储在2026年降息，从而提振美元；美元指数（DXY）需在100.35上方动能改善

ADP、ISM服务业价格与褐皮书或强化2026降息有限预期，支撑美元与短端重定价；但若能源未改善，DXY恐难守100.35上并突破100区间。

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