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5

Mar 2026

意大利1月零售销售同比（未季调）升至2.3%，高于此前的0.9%

意大利1月零售销售同比跳升至2.3%，显著快于0.9%。消费者动能增强或推升欧元区增长预期，令ECB降息更谨慎，利率与股债衍生品或迎重定价。

5

Mar 2026

意大利经季节调整的零售销售额在1月环比下降0.8%，未达到预期的环比增长0.2%

意大利1月零售意外环降0.8%，较预期低1个百分点，消费转弱敲响警钟；欧元区复苏存疑，ECB或更鸽派，欧元承压、意股与波动对冲机会升温。

5

Mar 2026

BNY策略师Geoff Yu表示，欧洲天然气期货价格大幅重新定价，已超出欧洲央行近期预测中的假设，令政策路径面临挑战

欧洲天然气期货飙升，较ECB基线高近60%！或将把欧元区通胀推高约1个百分点，市场转向计入加息风险，滞胀阴影下资产承压。

5

Mar 2026

欧洲交易时段，随着美联储鸽派预期减弱推动美元/日元升至157.35附近，日元走弱

日元回吐涨幅、美元再走强：强劲ADP与ISM服务业数据推高DXY至99.15，USD/JPY升至157.35；降息押注降温，中东紧张助推避险美元。

5

Mar 2026

奥地利季度环比GDP从0.2%降至0%，表明第四季度经济停滞

奥地利四季度GDP环比归零，经济陷入停滞，技术性衰退风险上升。德欧同步走弱、情绪转差，欧元承压。抓住机会：做空欧股与EUR/USD，买波动策略。

5

Mar 2026

欧洲交易时段，美元/加元交投于1.3645附近，随着美元反弹守住20日EMA，加元走强

美元/加元持平于1.3645附近：美元避险与强数据推升美元，加元受油价支撑相互抵消。汇价贴近20日EMA，RSI偏弱；关注1.3632支撑与1.3720阻力。

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