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5

Mar 2026

尽管能源价格冲击，日元仍保持坚挺，因市场对日本央行加息预期持续，或于4月实现

中东冲突推高油价，日元仍稳：市场押注日本央行继续加息、或4月行动。油价若久高或令央行更谨慎并拖累日元，期权可提前押突破。

5

Mar 2026

美国雇主报告2月裁员48,307人，环比下降55%、同比下降72%，招聘计划趋弱

美国2月裁员骤降至4.83万、AI提及仅0.47万，但招聘计划暴跌56%。官方新增就业低迷、失业率升，波动与油价风险加剧：裁员少不等于就业强。

5

Mar 2026

1月，美国年度进口价格指数降至-0.1%，较此前的0%有所回落

美国1月进口价格同比-0.1%，由持平转跌，暗示海外通胀压力消退。市场降息预期升温，利好长债与成长股、或压美元；但需警惕就业与核心服务通胀反弹逆转。

5

Mar 2026

美国续领失业救济人数达到186.8万，2月超过185万的预期数值

持续申领失业救济升至186.8万人，高于预期，释放就业降温信号。通胀仍高、核心PCE 2.6%掣肘降息；VIX徘徊18。可用期权对冲，关注美债利率下行机会。

5

Mar 2026

美国第四季度单位劳动力成本升至2.8%，远超0.2%的预期

劳动力成本Q4飙升2.8%远超预期，通胀再添火：美联储鹰派或重掌节奏，2026上半年降息几无望。利率更高更久，股债波动加剧、重估来袭。

5

Mar 2026

1月，美国年度出口价格指数放缓至2.6%，低于此前的3.1%

美国1月出口价格同比仅升2.6%，低于3.1%！通胀降温或逼近转折：美联储更鸽、美元或走弱，美债上涨，股市与风险资产机会浮现。

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