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5

Mar 2026

地缘政治不确定性和高能源价格支撑美元；特纳认为在私募信贷担忧之际，DXY将小幅走高

中东紧张与能源飙涨推升美元避险需求，ING看DXY上探区间上沿99.4-99.5。褐皮书偏弱、关税转嫁与私募信贷赎回风险升温，波动加剧或助美元更强。

5

Mar 2026

加拿大丰业银行表示，自美伊紧张局势开始以来，加元表现出韧性，并一直对美元保持坚挺

加元在美伊冲突中罕见稳住，但油价支撑减弱。利差与政策分化成主导：加拿大或更早降息推高USD/CAD。低波动环境下，考虑看涨期权或牛市价差。

5

Mar 2026

比特币突破7.4万美元阻力，点燃“Nifty”上涨希望；短期目标7.6万–7.7万美元，长期瞄准12.6万美元以上

比特币突破7.4万，结构看向7.6–7.7万，宏观第五浪剑指12.6万+；加密走强外溢股市：Nifty与BankNifty偏多，贵金属仍弱但做空风险升。

5

Mar 2026

美国失业救济申请略好于预期，截至2月28日当周新增申请21.3万份

失业金首申21.3万低于预期、四周均值回落，却见续申升至186.8万：找工更难。美元短涨但降息窗口开启，DXY看跌、SOFR与标普看涨布局。

5

Mar 2026

荷兰合作银行的简·福利表示，尽管存在风险，但随着市场对英国央行降息预期减弱，英镑近期表现已超过欧元

英镑跑赢欧元因降息预期降温。Rabobank称两者非避险；1–3个月EUR/GBP守0.87，H2或上行：政治风险、能源扰动推通胀黏性，期权押区间突破。

5

Mar 2026

里士满联储主席汤姆·巴尔金表示，政策制定者将每次会议都作出决定，并评估汽油价格上涨对通胀的影响

油价飙升会否再燃通胀？里士满联储巴尔金称美联储逐次会议看数据决策，政策仍偏紧；降息预期降温、波动或加剧，关注CPI与能源冲击。

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