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6

Mar 2026

土耳其国库2月现金赤字达944.2亿里拉，较此前2460亿里拉缺口收窄

土耳其2月财政现金赤字骤降至-944.2亿，较前值-2460亿大幅收窄，财政更纪律；里拉压力缓解、CDS跌破290bp，BIST100与债券利率或迎利好。

6

Mar 2026

ING的Ewa Manthey表示，中东冲突升级在供应风险收紧之际推高铝价至每吨4,000美元以上

中东冲突升温，ING上调铝价展望：霍尔木兹海峡若受阻，海运供应收紧、金属滞留与减产风险扩大，最坏情景铝价或短破每吨4,000美元后回落。

6

Mar 2026

旧金山联储戴利：单月数据不足以下定论；通胀高于目标、风险大致均衡——CNBC专访

戴利提醒：单月数据不足定论，通胀仍高于目标；就业与劳动力市场显脆弱。非农宜看均值，工资未过热。联储或续按兵不动，暂不加息。

6

Mar 2026

1月美国零售销售下滑0.2%至7335亿美元，前月持平后仍优于预期

美国1月零售销售环比跌0.2%低于预期，消费放缓信号浮现：加息挤压预算，6月降息押注升至35%。美元或承压，电商强、可选消费弱引发板块分化。

6

Mar 2026

在中东局势持续升级推动油价进一步走高之际，WTI原油升破85美元

中东冲突升温，WTI飙破85美元、周涨26%，布油逼近88美元；卡塔尔警告极端情境或冲150美元。供应偏紧加剧波动，期权对冲与布局成关键。

6

Mar 2026

荷兰银行预计欧元区与德国产出将回升，但能源威胁犹在，德国订单前景转弱

欧元区制造业有望回升：内需改善、德国国防拉动支撑，但能源涨价成阻力。德国订单1月回吐、PMI仍低于50；投机DAX忌重仓，用期权收息或跨式捕捉波动。

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