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10

Mar 2026

道明证券（TD Securities）分析师丹尼尔·加利指出，战争爆发后黄金需求仍然疲弱，场外（OTC）兴趣迅速消退

战争未点燃黄金买盘：TD Securities称OTC热度迅速转淡、成交淡季化；量化基金温和去杠杆压低杠杆资金，ETF持仓下滑；降息预期降温、中东买力弱、机构已普遍持有。

10

Mar 2026

野村称瑞士通胀仍接近零；在能源CPI权重有限及依赖水电的背景下，瑞士央行关注瑞郎动向

瑞士通胀几近归零、SNB利率0%，避险资金或推高瑞郎并加剧通缩风险。央行或加码外汇干预，重回负利率却门槛高。

10

Mar 2026

在美伊冲突与霍尔木兹海峡中断忧虑下，英镑/日元攀升，日本高度依赖石油的日元走弱

霍尔木兹海峡冲突忧虑升温，日圆因日本能源脆弱性走弱，推升英镑/日圆逼近月高。油价仍高、央行政策分歧扩大，波动率上升宜用期权布局。

10

Mar 2026

德国商业银行鲍尔称，中国强劲的矿石进口提振铜产量，而刚果供给面临风险

中国金属进口现分化：铁矿与铜精矿逆势增长，但精炼铜大跌。TC/RC转负暗示冶炼扩产、原料趋紧；若刚果（金）硫酸受扰，铜价或再起波澜。

10

Mar 2026

NBC称伊朗冲突推高加拿大央行（BoC）波动性，前端利率保持稳定，市场曾短暂计入2026年加息预期

伊朗冲突推高BoC利率预期波动，市场从降息转向加息定价。国民银行料至2026按兵不动：核心通胀受控、增长疲弱失业升，前端利率与隐波偏高。

10

Mar 2026

美国Redbook年度指数放缓至6.2%，较最新一期的7%回落

美国 Redbook 零售年增降至6.2%，消费降温警报响起！高利率或正压缩钱包；叠加就业稳、通胀黏，美联储更难抉择，宜谨慎可选消费并以零售ETF put、VIX call 对冲。

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