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13

Mar 2026

中东冲突升级之际，英镑/美元交投于1.3350附近，跌势延续至连续第三日

中东战火升级压制英镑/美元跌至1.3350，避险推升美元。IEA释放4亿桶或难解忧虑，隐含波动率料走高；可考虑Put或美元Call对冲与布局。

13

Mar 2026

美元/加元升破1.3700，因加拿大疲弱就业数据及强劲美元需求拖累加元

加元就业爆冷拖累，美元/加元连涨触逾周高；美伊开战推升避险与美元指数。市场下调美联储降息预期，加央行会议前看涨期权受关注。

13

Mar 2026

3月密歇根消费者情绪指数录得55.5点，家庭信心因对现状与前景看法转淡而下滑

密大消费者信心再跌，预期转弱成警讯！一年通胀预期僵在3.4%压制降息，美元指数重返100偏强；高利率强美元利空黄金，消费股与长债宜防守。

13

Mar 2026

德国商业银行大宗商品团队称，伊朗战争引发创纪录供应中断，IEA估计日产量损失超过800万桶

伊朗战争引爆史上最大停供：IEA估每日少800万桶，全球供给跌破9,900万桶。虽释4亿桶储备仅撑1-2个月，油价与波动率仍高企，逢回调偏多。

13

Mar 2026

渣打银行预计日本央行将谨慎维持利率在0.75%，在经济增长不均与油价因素影响下美元/日元走高

日央行3月料守0.75%，待加薪带动消费才正常化，基准第三季或7月加息，终端利率看1%或更高。美元/日元或再测162，口头干预偏弱，可用牛市价差应对。

13

Mar 2026

荷兰合作银行策略师下调欧元兑美元短期预测，霍尔木兹中断推升全球油气价格

霍尔木兹海峡运输风险升温、油气价走高拖累欧元区，Rabobank下调EUR/USD短线展望：1个月1.14、3个月1.15，并警惕欧元多头拥挤与贸易条件恶化。

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