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Live Updates

16

Mar 2026

法国兴业银行经济学家指出，欧元兑英镑跌破200日均线，测试2月低点0.8610，或面临进一步下行风险

EUR/GBP 跌破200日均线0.8690，正压测0.8610关键支撑；若失守，跌势或延伸至0.8580/0.8535。市场近超卖或反弹，但可布局看跌期权。

16

Mar 2026

欧洲交易时段，金价徘徊在5,000美元附近，市场下调对美联储降息的预期构成压力

黄金连跌四日失守5000：油价飙升推迟降息、避险降温致回调。关注霍尔木兹风险与央行强买盘“托底”。策略偏短空，亦可低成本布局长Call。

16

Mar 2026

星展银行Philip Wee：美元/日元逼近160；日本与韩国发出警告，日银或意外加息

USD/JPY逼近160，日、韩罕见联手口头护盘，干预与协同行动概率升温。输入型通胀叠加能源风险，BOJ 3/19或意外加息；波动飙升、日元净空拥挤，防急挤仓反转。

16

Mar 2026

渣打银行分析师警告：油价走高或通过化肥、供应瓶颈及CPI权重推高食品通胀

油价飙升恐再点燃食品通胀：化肥成本与运输受阻加速传导，霍尔木兹风险放大；各国受冲击看食品CPI权重与进口依赖，或逼央行更鹰派与交易布局。

16

Mar 2026

普菲斯特称油价走高利好加元，惟结构性逆风及与美元联动限制涨幅

油价破百提振加元，但结构性掣肘与强美元令升幅有限。Commerzbank看2026上半年USD/CAD守1.37。想押加元更偏EUR/CAD下行；关键风险在中东降温或美通胀转弱。

16

Mar 2026

欧洲时段，欧元/美元在1.1415附近回吐早前涨幅，因美元重拾上行动能

欧元/美元回吐涨幅至1.1415，避险与油价波动撑美元。市场盯紧Fed、ECB利率去向：通胀缓和或促Fed明年降息，欧弱增长或先松，欧元或承压。

16

Mar 2026

德意志银行经济学家预计美联储本周将按兵不动，称地缘政治不确定性及油价推升通胀风险为主因

抢先布局“更久高利率”：德银料美联储本周按兵不动，但点阵图偏鹰，核心PCE升至3.1%且油价逼近100美元。建议卖近端利率、买VIX/纳指put与油价期权对冲。

16

Mar 2026

在利好中国数据支撑下，受纽储行加息预期提振，纽元支撑纽元/美元守在0.5810附近、稳守0.5800上方

纽美止跌守0.5800，中国数据超预期助攻反弹；市场紧盯RBNZ 9月或加息、Fed年中降息压美元。中东油价与中国需求仍添变数，期权跨式布局波动。

16

Mar 2026

在主要央行周之际，美元和油价的涨势在早盘暂歇

霍尔木兹海峡紧张升温：美军打击伊朗目标、护航联盟酝酿。油价冲高回落，美元上周飙1.5%后走软。多国央行与美加数据将引爆波动。

16

Mar 2026

澳洲基本面偏鹰支撑澳元兑美元，但伊朗战争担忧限制涨幅；市场计入澳洲联储加息至4.10%

澳元获RBA偏鹰与加息预期撑盘，但伊朗战事推升避险压制。AUD/USD守0.69-0.70成关键，后市看Fed口风与人民币强弱；波动市宜用期权控险。

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