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Live Updates

16

Mar 2026

加拿大央行（BoC）追踪的核心消费者价格指数（CPI）按年从2月的2.6%降至2.3%

加拿大2月核心CPI降至2.3%爆冷，降息空间打开！市场或加速计价Q2降息：做多BAX受惠、加元承压看涨USD/CAD，股市利好TSX60期权。

16

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行（BNY）Bob Savage：尽管G10资金流入不足、会议前夕仍显乏力，但市场对澳洲联储（RBA）鹰派预期提振澳元韧性

RBA议息在即仍偏鹰派，但澳元未获明显资金涌入。AUD/USD流入转强却被交叉盘拖累。交易机会转向做多AUD/EUR及商品利好驱动的相对价值。

16

Mar 2026

贝森特告诉CNBC：华盛顿认为伊朗冲突持续时间将左右油价及全球能源供应

伊朗冲突拖多久，决定美国如何纾解油价压力。贝森特称供应缺口达1000万至1400万桶，油价或冲150美元；期权波动飙升，干预与缓和消息成回调导火线。

16

Mar 2026

2月，加拿大年化新屋开工总数为25.09万套，低于预期的25.25万套

加拿大2月新屋开工25.09万户略逊预期，通胀偏高却就业放缓；楼市或现转折信号，经济降温叙事升温，加拿大央行加息理据更难站稳。

16

Mar 2026

野村预计在能源风险不断加剧之际，瑞典央行将把利率维持在1.75%不变，并持续至2026年

瑞典央行或3月按兵不动：野村料利率维持1.75%至2026年。核心通胀偏弱、增长疲软，但中东冲突推高油价，通胀风险升温，政策左右为难。

16

Mar 2026

特朗普呼吁盟友确保霍尔木兹海峡安全畅通，WTI徘徊在98美元附近

WTI连涨后回落至98美元附近，特朗普促多国护航霍尔木兹应对伊朗；富查伊拉遇袭停装加剧供应忧虑。中等隐含波动率下，长天期看涨期权及WTI-Brent价差或成机会。

16

Mar 2026

欧元/日元维持在182.40附近，地缘政治乐观情绪支撑欧元，干预担忧仍处高位

EUR/JPY 182.40 企稳，地缘降温提振欧元；但油价高企压制欧元区，ECB 仍被押注两次加息。日方警告干预、波动升温，期权布局回落或跨式。

16

Mar 2026

分析师预计福特股价在第二季将维持区间震荡；若利润率保持稳定且现金流提供下行支撑，仍有上行空间

福特Q2料窄幅震荡，但关税与EV巨亏压制反弹；技术面转强势C浪下跌，目标8.28–4.26。期权可用认沽/熊市价差，14.88为失效止损。混动车增或短撑。

16

Mar 2026

ING的Chris Turner预计中东紧张局势将令油价维持高位，在美联储保持谨慎之际支撑美元

中东冲突推高油价风险溢价，一度支撑美元与DXY逼近区间顶。但油价回落、通胀降温促美联储转向降息，市场押注续降，美元偏软交易浮现。

16

Mar 2026

BBH的Elias Haddad表示，澳洲联储或将加息25个基点至4.10%，而期货市场略偏向加息的可能性

RBA或连续第二次加息25基点至4.10%，期货仅定价53%引爆悬念。高通胀与服务业压力撑澳元，交易可用澳元期权、跨式或做空3年期国债期货布局。

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