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Live Updates

17

Mar 2026

道明证券认为市场趋稳将推升美国利率，但质疑加息概率，倾向美联储延长暂停升息

美债收益率在情绪回稳下走高，swap利差扩大。市场紧盯美联储更久暂停与地缘政治。波动回落后，焦点转向何时降息，SOFR期货押注2026偏鸽。

17

Mar 2026

德国ZEW现况指数3月录得-62.9，优于市场预期的-67.1

德国ZEW当前状况指数3月升至-62.9，优于预期，悲观降温。DAX波动或回落，卖虚值看跌收权利金；欧元触底憧憬升温，留意EUR/USD看涨期权。

17

Mar 2026

德国3月ZEW经济景气指数降至-0.5，不及预期38.7，整体低于市场预期

德国3月ZEW景气指数暴跌至-0.5，远逊预期38.7！增长警讯拉响：欧元承压、DAX防守对冲、Bund受惠降息预期，波动或升温。关注VSTOXX机会。

17

Mar 2026

MUFG的李哈德曼表示，澳洲联储连续加息将利率推升至4.10%，支撑澳元，惟随后涨势回吐

澳洲央行再升息至4.10%居G10之首，通胀上行风险未解，5:4惊险过关；澳元冲高回吐。市场押注5月再加码、今年或两次，债券收益率与商品强势撑盘。

17

Mar 2026

美国股指期货在欧洲时段小幅走低，道指逼近46,850点；标普与纳指亦下跌

油价再飙、霍尔木兹风险未消，美股三大期指齐跌；通胀忧虑升温压低降息预期。交易员需重估“高利率更久”，期权对冲成焦点。

17

Mar 2026

根据2月CPI数据，意大利年度消费者通胀为1.5%，低于1.6%的预期

意大利2月CPI仅升1.5%低预期，欧元区HICP同样偏软，通胀降温加速。市场押注ECB最快7月降息超60%；利率下行或利好欧债期货与意股期权。

17

Mar 2026

意大利2月月度消费者通胀上升0.7%，略低于0.8%的预测

意大利2月CPI环比0.7%逊预期，通胀降温削弱高利率叙事，市场押ECB下半年更鸽：EURIBOR偏多、欧元承压、意股与低波动策略或受益。

17

Mar 2026

2月意大利欧盟统一口径年通胀率（CPI）报1.5%，低于1.6%的预期

意大利2月CPI按年升1.5%低于预期，强化欧元区通胀降温。市场押注ECB第三季前或降息，欧元承压、股市或受惠，期货与期权策略可布局。

17

Mar 2026

2月意大利欧盟统一口径月度CPI上涨0.5%，低于预期的0.6%增幅

意大利2月HICP环比仅升0.5%逊预期，通胀降温或促ECB提前转鸽，二季前降息机率升；关注EURIBOR期货、欧股期权，并用欧元/美元看跌对冲汇率回落。

17

Mar 2026

法国兴业银行策略师称霍尔木兹海峡原油流量暴跌、减产停产加速，全球供应冲击进一步恶化

霍尔木兹近停摆致17mb/d原油“卡住”、海湾约2mb/d炼厂停产，成品油更紧推升裂解价差。布伦特冲破155美元；欧洲靠7,000万桶航煤库存硬撑数月，释储难解缺口。

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