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Live Updates

19

Mar 2026

PPI升幅超预期且FOMC决议打压市场，滞胀忧虑升温，道指跌近1%（约450点）

PPI爆表撞上FOMC，美股周三齐跌：道指挫近1%、标普0.7%。市场仅押一次降息；油价飙破95美元、金价回落，VIX高企催生做多波动与能源交易。

18

Mar 2026

ING的Frantisek Taborsky称，在风险偏好推动下，中东欧货币走强，尽管能源驱动的通胀升温且加息预期降温

风险偏好回暖助推中东欧货币反弹！尽管能源高企，通胀压力仍在，但市场已下调加息押注，VIX走低改善流动性，短线续强阻力较小。

18

Mar 2026

在美联储利率决议公布前，欧元/美元从1.1500回升，美元自高位回落

欧元/美元反弹至1.1518：美元在美联储决议前回落，但伊朗能源遇袭推升油价与PPI，降息预期骤降；点阵图若转“零减息”，恐再跌向1.1350。

18

Mar 2026

加拿大央行维持利率于2.25%，称增长前景转弱但仍延续收紧立场

加拿大央行按兵不动：利率维持2.25%。但增长前景转弱、能源与中东冲突推升短期通胀风险；官员称将逐次决策，通胀扩散恐再收紧。

18

Mar 2026

余氏称拉美主权债仍为全球持有最多资产之一，持仓较年均水平高出14%，且无被低配货币

拉美主权债持仓创全球新高、较均值高14%，却几乎零对冲且做空减少，交易拥挤。巴西Selic决议在即，若美联储转鹰，资金或急撤。

18

Mar 2026

美国PPI火热后，市场重新鹰派定价美联储，英镑/美元下跌0.21%至约1.3320

英镑/美元跌至1.3320：美国PPI超预期推高美元，Fed点阵图或更鹰；中东紧张助避险。关注1.3300支撑、1.3360阻力，空英镑成主线。

18

Mar 2026

2月俄罗斯月度生产者价格上涨0.5%，从此前下跌2.5%反弹

俄罗斯2月PPI环比转涨0.5%，扭转1月跌2.5%；通胀压力或回归，动摇二季度降息预期。油价走强助推，卢布偏强、利率或高位更久。

18

Mar 2026

俄罗斯年度生产者价格进一步下跌，按年降幅由2月的-5%扩大至-5.2%

俄罗斯2月PPI跌幅扩大至-5.2%，通缩加深！央行降息压力升温，卢布或转弱；看多俄债与利率期货，股市偏空需对冲，原油金属宜逢高做空。

18

Mar 2026

德国商业银行的普菲斯特预计：巴西央行将从15%开始启动降息，首轮下调25–50个基点，并在2026年稍后加快降息步伐

巴西央行利率15%见顶？德商行料今晚先降25或50bp，2026加速宽松。通胀降温、GDP疲弱支撑；可布局DI期货、收固定互换与USD/BRL看涨期权。

18

Mar 2026

美元/日元在美国时段升向159.50，市场等待美联储决议，利率料维持不变

美元/日元逼近159.50，聚焦美联储按兵不动与SEP、鲍威尔讲话；中东战事推升能源与通胀预期。日银或维持0.75%。技术面偏多，阻力159.59。

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