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Live Updates

19

Mar 2026

美联储鹰派暂停后美元走强；为读者梳理市场重点看点

美联储按兵不动、点阵图暗示至2027仅两次降息；中东冲突推高油价与通胀风险，美元指数破100。PPI超预期，欧英日央行决议在即，汇市震荡加剧。

19

Mar 2026

1月美国整体TIC净资金流降至-250亿美元，前值为449亿美元

警惕资金风向突变：美国1月TIC净流量转负至-250亿美元，海外买盘降温。美元支撑或减弱、美债收益率易走高，建议用期权与期货布局对冲波动。

19

Mar 2026

在鲍威尔警告通胀粘性风险后，英镑/美元跌破1.3300，盘中约在1.3375至1.3283区间波动

英镑兑美元盘中剧震，FOMC维持利率但更鹰：通胀预测上调、关税推升物价，美元获支撑。焦点转向英央行，GBP/USD或续压，期权看跌布局。

19

Mar 2026

在美联储警告通胀顽固及油市不确定性后，美元指数尾盘飙升，触及高位

美联储维持利率3.50%-3.75%不变，点阵图示今年或仅降息一次；2026通胀与GDP预测上调。美元指数会后冲高站上200EMA，关注100关口与100.20阻力。

19

Mar 2026

鲍威尔解释维持利率不变，将更高的经济增长预测归因于生产力，并在会后回答记者提问

美联储按兵不动，利率维持3.50%–3.75%，11:1通过；唯一反对票主张降25基点。鲍威尔释“耐心”，通胀仍高、不确定性升温，降息看数据逐次决定。

19

Mar 2026

美联储维持利率不变且2026年降息空间有限，纽元/美元下跌0.71%至0.5814，市场聚焦新西兰GDP数据

联储按兵不动且放鹰，美元走强压低纽元/美元至0.5814。美PPI升温、DXY触100；关注纽西兰GDP与政策分化，期权或期货捕捉波动与套息机会。

19

Mar 2026

阿根廷第四季度失业率升至7.5%，较上一季度的6.6%环比上升

阿根廷Q4失业率跳升至7.5%，经济转弱信号强。比索料续承压，策略偏多USD/ARS；Merval偏空、波动或飙，跨式与看跌期权成焦点。

19

Mar 2026

美国PPI通胀强劲后，英镑兑美元下跌0.21%至1.3320，市场对美联储的乐观情绪降温

美国PPI高于预期点燃通胀担忧，英镑/美元回落、美元转强。美联储更久维持高利率，英央行或提前降息，政策分化推升波动，期权对冲成焦点。

19

Mar 2026

美国通胀回升、中东紧张局势升温提振美元，金价下跌逾2.20%至4,878美元

黄金单日重挫2.2%跌破50日均线，因美PPI超预期推高美债收益率与美元；油价受中东紧张上扬添通胀忧。聚焦美联储点阵图，4,800成关键防线。

19

Mar 2026

美联储决议前，受更高的PPI提振，美元指数（DXY）上涨约0.3%后徘徊在100附近

PPI爆表叠加伊朗冲突、油价逼近98美元，美元指数回升至99.85并守稳关键均线。市场押注联储高利率更久，关注鲍威尔与点阵图，100关口成焦点。

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