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Live Updates

19

Mar 2026

彭博报道：伊朗与以色列互袭中东关键能源设施，区域紧张局势升级

中东能源设施遇袭升级：以色列打击伊朗南帕尔斯后，IRGC警告海湾能源成“合法目标”。阿联酋、卡塔尔、沙特称遭导弹与无人机波及，油价震荡，美方降温。

19

Mar 2026

大华银行（UOB）经济学家称，印尼央行维持利率在4.75%，并采取偏鹰派立场直至2026年

印尼央行突转鹰派：利率4.75%料守到2026年底，UOB撤回降息预测。中东冲突推升油价、印尼盾承压，市场须尽快平仓降息押注，重估做空与对冲。

19

Mar 2026

新西兰统计局：第四季GDP按季增长0.2%，低于预期，此前一季增长0.9%

新西兰Q4 GDP按季仅增0.2%低于预期，按年1.3%仍弱；纽元跌破0.5800、NZD/USD挫1.2%。降息预期升温叠加中国需求疲软，后市偏空。

19

Mar 2026

鲍威尔发出通胀警告拖累澳元/美元下挫1.15%，0.7100附近受阻，收盘约报0.7025

澳元惊现“冲高回落”！AUD/USD跌1.15%收0.7025，美联储通胀更顽强、PPI超预期；RBA仅微升息至4.10%。短线关键看0.7010支撑与0.7120阻力。

19

Mar 2026

GDP 数据不及预期后，纽元/美元下跌 1.25%，跌破 200 日 EMA，收于 0.5790 附近

纽元/美元跌1.25%失守50/200日均线，纽西兰GDP逊预期增添RBNZ观望；美联储偏鹰、PPI超预期施压。关键支撑0.5765，跌破恐探0.5700。

19

Mar 2026

避险情绪推高日元，投资者等待日本央行决议之际，英镑/日元下跌0.20%

英镑兑日圆回落至211.82，静待日本央行决议与避险推升日圆。“乌云盖顶”警示失守211.63恐下探211；若破212.73或再战215。期权波动升温。

19

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行（BNY）Geoff Yu：尽管波动加剧，亚太新兴市场股票仍是全球最佳持仓，宜加强对冲策略

亚太股市剧烈波动，风险聚焦AI与半导体：氦气供应、油价与短端利率成三大变量。资金仍偏好新兴亚太，机构以看跌期权与价差对冲守核心仓位。

19

Mar 2026

大华银行经济学家称，印尼央行优先维稳印尼盾，在收紧外汇监管的同时维持利率不变

中东冲突搅动市场，印尼央行3月按兵不动：基准利率4.75%不变，却加码外汇管制与DNDF/互换额度，压制投机、稳住印尼盾；低波动环境利好卖跨式策略与套息交易。

19

Mar 2026

美联储鹰派按兵不动后，美元/日元上涨0.40%，在159.60附近徘徊，波动中瞄准160

美联储按兵不动却预告2026仅降息一次，推升美元/日元逼近159.8。鲍威尔称逐次会议看通胀与关税影响。日银决议将引爆160.5阻力或159支撑。

19

Mar 2026

汇丰中国宏观团队援引2026年GDP目标4.5%–5.0%，强调需求驱动的“十五五”规划重点

两会闭幕定调：2026年GDP目标4.5%-5%，“政策底”明确。财政更积极、发债提速，七万亿基建+科技升级或催化工业金属与科技反弹，策略偏结构性做多。

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