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Live Updates

21

Mar 2026

日本CFTC日元非商业净持仓降至-6.78万手，前值为-4.14万手

日元投机净空头从-41.4K扩大至-67.8K，空头情绪升温！利差驱动套息交易，USD/JPY或续强；但仓位拥挤，警惕干预与轧空急逆转。

21

Mar 2026

澳大利亚CFTC澳元（AUD）非商业净持仓升至6.91万份，高于前值5.42万份

投机资金大举加码澳元：CFTC净多头升至69.1k，周增14.9k。RBA偏鹰、Fed或降息，铁矿石与就业助攻；可用AUD/USD看涨期权或牛市价差布局。

21

Mar 2026

在伊朗战争疑虑升温之际，鹰派美联储按兵不动维持利率不变，美元走弱，美元指数（DXY）跌破100

美元指数跌破100，伊朗冲突与霍尔木兹海峡危机推高油价逼近98。市场押注ECB、BoE偏鹰，欧元英镑反弹，关注通胀数据与原油期权大波动机会。

21

Mar 2026

金价在连续八个交易日下跌后逼近4500美元，受油价上涨、美国国债收益率走高及美元避险需求增强拖累

金价连跌8日、本周恐挫逾8.5%，报4,560美元；美债收益率飙、美元走强与中东油价急升重压黄金。关键守4,402，失守恐探4,000，GVZ爆表。

21

Mar 2026

他们预期标普500指数有望很快逆势反弹，反映选举年规律：3月见底、3月见顶

中期选举年季节性再发威：标普如期3/13触底、3/17见顶却再破新低。关键支撑6490±10，或先反弹至6900±100，4月后再跌探0.382回撤。

21

Mar 2026

阿根廷第四季度GDP按年增长达2.1%，略低于预测的2.2%水平

阿根廷第四季GDP年增2.1%低预期，复苏降温叠高通胀。AGt ETF今年跌8%，看跌需求升、隐含波动破40%。用put对冲或跨式布局。

21

Mar 2026

美元/瑞郎持稳，联储预期与油价带动的美元需求抑制瑞郎涨势

中东冲突升级推高避险与美元需求，瑞郎回吐涨幅、对美元近持平；美元指数回落但仍涨。SNB或干预压制瑞郎，油价上行恐推迟美联储降息。

21

Mar 2026

贝克休斯称美国石油钻机数量增至414座，前值为412座

美国石油钻机414座，周增2座：供应或温和回升但冲击有限。OPEC+控产叠加EIA库存意外降210万桶，WTI守85美元，偏多延续，关注价外看涨期权。

20

Mar 2026

金价在连续两天大跌后进一步下滑，逼近4,500美元，料将连续第三周周线收跌

黄金连跌逼近4,500美元低位！全球央行维持高利率、美元与美债收益率走强压制金价；但降息预期回温与央行买盘托底，期权策略可布局。

20

Mar 2026

受伊朗战争与美联储鹰派立场驱动，他预计美国股指下跌，四周连跌势头延续

美股受中东冲突升级、波斯湾能源风险与“四巫日”放大波动拖累续挫，油气走强、VIX攀升。美联储偏鹰推升美元、压制贵金属；投资者转向期权对冲与财报波动机会。

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