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Live Updates

22

Mar 2026

贝森特告诉NBC，特朗普可能同时升级与降级局势，因为两种行动可能重叠

贝森特称“先升级再降温”，特朗普暗示不排除强硬选项；哈尔克岛遭轰炸引爆风险厌恶。美元转强、VIX破30，油价冲近110；期权对冲与做多波动率成焦点。

22

Mar 2026

中东紧张局势升级之际，避险情绪推升美元，澳元兑美元下挫逼近0.7000

中东紧张升温触发避险，AUD/USD跌近0.7000，美元走强压制澳元。RBA暂停加息、支撑转弱；衍生品投资者可用价外看跌期权限风险布局下行。

22

Mar 2026

美以与伊朗战事进入第四周，特朗普向伊朗下达48小时霍尔木兹最后通牒

美伊以战事迈入第四周，特朗普限48小时开放霍尔木兹，否则摧毁伊朗电厂；伊朗扬言封锁海峡并报复能源资产。油价/VIX或飙升，期权对冲成焦点。

21

Mar 2026

XAG/USD白银下跌6.8%，报67.89美元，周跌幅料超过15.7%

白银北美盘急挫6.8%至67.89，本周或跌15.7%，跌破100日均线与70关口、触及65.52。焦点：守住64.10上升趋势未毁，反弹看70与100日线。

21

Mar 2026

路透调查预计墨西哥央行将维持利率在7%，中东冲突加剧通胀担忧

路透：Banxico本月料续按兵不动，利率维持7%，中东风险令市场更分裂。降息与甚至加息预测并存，波动料升温，期权与TIIE掉期或迎交易机会。

21

Mar 2026

美国CFTC数据显示，标普500非商业净持仓从-134.5K升至-113.1K

CFTC：标普500投机净空降至-11.31万，空头回补升温。通胀低预期提振降息憧憬，VIX回落。警惕空头挤压与反弹加速，策略偏收紧止损。

21

Mar 2026

美国CFTC数据显示，非商业黄金净持仓为15.99万手，较前值16.31万手下降

CFTC：黄金大型投机净多头降至15.99万手，减3200手。金价屡攻2450受阻、CPI放缓美元走强，情绪降温但未转空；期权对冲或备兑认购捕捉震荡收益。

21

Mar 2026

欧元区CFTC报告：欧元非商业净持仓降至21.1K，前值105.1K

CFTC欧元投机净多头暴砍近80%至2.11万手，资金“投降式”撤退。德国ZEW、欧元区PMI转弱叠加美联储偏鹰，利差或再扩，EUR/USD承压；期权可偏认沽与波动率上行策略。

21

Mar 2026

美国CFTC原油非商业净持仓降至21.87万手，前值22.8万手

油价上涨动能恐放缓：CFTC原油投机净多头降至21.87万份，基金减仓近1万；叠加美库存意外增、OPEC+维持配额与中国PMI偏弱，或迎盘整回调，可用虚值Put或熊市价差对冲。

21

Mar 2026

英国CFTC数据显示，英镑非商业净持仓升至-6.55万手，较此前的-8.42万手有所改善

英镑空头在退潮：CFTC显示投机净空降至-6.55万张，情绪本季最明显改善。通胀回落令英央行或停加息、年底可降息；波动率下行，策略宜转向稳中偏多。

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