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Live Updates

8

Sep 2026

美元/加元走低，油价提振加元，美联储与加拿大央行降息押注分歧扩大

油价飙升推高加元，USD/CAD 跌至1.3813。就业走弱难挡商品支撑；地缘与加息预期主导。策略：短期买入看跌、油价看涨、通胀前布局长跨式。

8

Sep 2026

美元/韩元反弹，国民年金公团或暂停远期美元卖出，荷兰国际集团预计将进入盘整阶段

韩元升值或撞上政策天花板：传NPS暂停/逆转远期卖美元，USD/KRW触1335后反弹。ING料与USD/JPY转盘整，美元卖压降，策略转中性偏多。

8

Sep 2026

越南通胀加快，贸易差距收窄，USD/VND在富时升级前趋稳

越南8月通胀升至4.9%超预期，厄尔尼诺或推高食品价；贸易逆差骤缩、盾汇稳。FTSE上调倒计时，或吸引50亿美元资金，布局做多VND与越股。

8

Sep 2026

欧元/美元企稳于1.1600上方，市场押注美联储加息升温，静待欧洲央行及美国通胀数据

欧元兑美元守稳1.1600，但四连日未破；强劲非农推升9月加息概率至58%。欧元区增长上修短冲1.1650回落，周四ECB决议、PPI/CPI与1.1650阻力成焦点。

8

Sep 2026

随着美国数据强劲、市场重新定价日本央行利率路径，美元/日元跌至六个月低点

美元/日元跌破半年低点至154附近：美非农强、加息预期升温仍无力反弹，市场改押BOJ加息与日债收益率上行。策略：155附近逢高做空/买Put，破154看153。

7

Sep 2026

纽元/美元跌破0.5880，因新西兰央行前景与美国通胀数据令交易员保持谨慎

纽美徘徊0.5880，反弹乏力但美元犹疑缓冲跌势。聚焦美国CPI与RBNZ前景，关键区间0.5872–0.5903；突破或破位前，跨式+看跌对冲抓波动。

7

Sep 2026

美元/瑞郎小幅走低，美元转软、日元走强及美联储通胀测试推动波动加剧

美元受压拖累USD/CHF回落至0.8091，日元走强主导情绪。美国CPI/PPI与9月FOMC前波动率或扩张，宜布局跨式；关注0.8000、0.7935支撑。

7

Sep 2026

英国央行面临“更高利率、维持更久”压力：按揭批准量下滑，能源带动通胀回归

按揭批准跌至2023年末低位，利率高企压楼市；能源推升通胀，英格兰银行或更久维持高利率、降息或延至2027。策略：卖SONIA、空短债、买英镑看涨。

7

Sep 2026

道明证券称，加拿大央行“鹰派暂停”加息，预计利率将维持不变直至2027年，并上调中性利率预测

别再押短期降息！TD称加拿大央行转鹰：隔夜利率2.25%或按兵不动至2026，2027年1月与3月各加25bp回到2.75%；油价与338关税推升通胀风险，建议CORRA期货、付固定OIS及卖短天期利率互换期权。

7

Sep 2026

荷兰银行认为欧元区经济增长仍具韧性，能源带动通胀反弹推升欧洲央行收紧政策风险

能源推升通胀回升：ABN AMRO 指欧元区仍扩张，德国财政托底，2026 增长上调至0.8%。但通胀或破3.5%逼ECB更鹰；建议做空Bund、买Euribor put、偏多欧元与买VSTOXX对冲。

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