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Live Updates

26

Mar 2026

官方数据显示，意大利企业信心在3月从88.5小幅升至88.8

意大利3月商业信心回升至88.8、仍低于100基准，复苏偏脆弱但悲观缓解。BTP-Bund利差缩至132基点、欧股波动降至13.5；投资者可偏稳健获利，布局FTSE MIB卖Put价差或低成本买欧股Call，押注缓慢上行。

26

Mar 2026

根据2月数据发布，欧元区私营部门贷款同比增长3%，低于预期的3.1%

欧元区2月私人贷款年增仅3.0%逊预期，经济降温信号更明确。ECB加息空间收窄、鸽派概率升；利率与欧元承压，用Bund期货、EUR/USD看跌及欧股波动策略抢先布局。

26

Mar 2026

欧元区年度M3货币供应量增速不及预期，实际录得3%，低于预估的3.3%

欧元区2月M3年增仅3%低预期，信贷降温警报拉响：市场押注欧洲央行或提早降息。利率期货、欧元看跌期权与VSTOXX波动布局成焦点。

26

Mar 2026

欧元/美元跌破1.16；欧央行鹰派提振消退，风险偏好仍稳，需油价主导下海湾局势保持平静

风险偏好升温，欧元/美元却失守1.16：油价回落触发市场更大幅重估ECB加息预期，反弹显脆弱。衍生品交易员或转向看跌与卖出看涨策略。

26

Mar 2026

金价在早前下跌后回升至4,415美元附近，但在央行鹰派立场与美元走强下，市场看空情绪仍延续

金价受100日SMA压制回落至4415，美元避险走强与美债收益率上升拖累。伊朗拒停火、霍尔木兹紧张推油价通胀，降息预期退潮。关键阻力4614/4770，支撑4407/4300。

26

Mar 2026

丹斯克银行预计挪威央行将维持利率在4%，但中东紧张局势与能源价格波动带来风险

中东局势与油气价波动搅局！丹斯克料挪威央行下次维持利率4%不变，指引偏鹰：通胀高或再加息；克朗偏弱令降息更难，短端利率宜高位布局。

26

Mar 2026

大华银行分析师称英镑/美元回落至1.3366；观点仍偏分歧，略有下行倾向，1.3320不太可能触及

英镑/美元跌至1.3366，短线偏空但料难破1.3320；1–3周料困1.3220–1.3480，适合卖波动率。盯紧周线失守1.3300，恐下探1.2945–1.3010。

26

Mar 2026

数据显示，西班牙第四季度GDP同比增长达2.7%，高于一众预测的2.6%。

西班牙第四季GDP按年增2.7%略胜预期，服务业强撑跑赢欧元区。强势或推迟ECB降息，策略可偏多IBEX期权、配对做多西班牙做空德国。

26

Mar 2026

西班牙第四季度GDP环比增长0.8%，符合预测并符合市场预期，未出现意外变化

西班牙Q4 GDP按季增0.8%符合预期，经济韧性定调稳健；通胀黏性令ECB偏鹰，降息难、股市上行受限。IBEX宜卖虚值call，欧元或区间震荡。

26

Mar 2026

地缘政治紧张局势与美联储预期支撑美元保持坚挺，澳元徘徊在低位附近

钩子：中东一声炮响，AUD/USD还能站稳吗？油价飙升推高美债收益率与美元避险需求，澳元反弹易遭抛售；可关注做空或买入看跌期权。

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