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Live Updates

26

Mar 2026

地缘政治紧张局势推升避险美元需求，美元/瑞郎在美伊停火希望降温下升至0.7930附近

中东停火希望降温推升避险美元，USD/CHF走高至0.7930；DXY守99.90。伊朗拒特朗普方案，谈判卡关。美联储料维持利率至9月；瑞郎持稳，SNB备战干预。

26

Mar 2026

佩索莱称英伦银行言论好坏参半但整体偏鹰；若紧张局势缓和，鸽派重新定价或推升欧元/英镑

英央行委员表态分化但整体偏鹰，唯Taylor偏鸽。若能源风险降温，利率预期或转鸽压英镑，EUR/GBP有望破0.8700；期权布局看涨捕捉降息拐点。

26

Mar 2026

纽约梅隆银行（BNY）Bob Savage：随着高收益新兴市场资金外流加剧、南非央行（SARB）决议前夕兰特承压升温

兰特决策前加速承压，成高收益新兴货币资金流出最明显者。市场平仓转空，并重估央行路径：从“自动驾驶”转向更鹰派紧缩，应对国际收支与稳定性忧虑。

26

Mar 2026

纽元兑美元连续第三个交易日走弱，在美伊和平乐观情绪消退下跌破0.5800

纽元/美元连跌三日失守0.5800，觸及0.5781。伊朗拒绝美方15点方案，中东战火升温推高避险、VIX飙升、美元走强。期权对冲下行与波动风险。

26

Mar 2026

MUFG的Derek Halpenny表示，欧洲央行暗示对能源带动的通胀采取比以往周期更强有力的应对措施

通胀再升，ECB放鹰了：拉加德称“任何会议都可行动”，若PMI等调查转差最快Q2加息。利率与波动率或走高，欧元获支撑。

26

Mar 2026

伊朗紧张局势升级，避险情绪推升美元；全球股债走弱之际，油价上涨

伊朗冲突升温触发避险潮：美元指数破106.5、油价站上90美元，股债承压。市场忧能源冲击、央行高利率更久、融资成本上升，美元需求再飙。

26

Mar 2026

伊朗拒绝停火后避险情绪升温，英镑兑美元在1.3350附近小幅走弱，兑主要货币亦略显疲软

伊朗拒美停火与“15点方案”触发避险：英镑回落至1.3350，美元与VIX走强。能源冲击推升英国通胀压力，市场加码波动率与英镑看跌、原油看涨对冲。

26

Mar 2026

道明证券表示，挪威央行将利率维持在4.00%，但指引暗示一年内可能加息

挪威央行利率维持4%，却把指引从“2026或降息”翻转为“2026至少加息一次”。通胀与油价冲击升温，或夏末再加；克朗偏强，FRA与NOK/EUR期权成焦点。

26

Mar 2026

布里登表示，在英国央行收集更多英国货币数据之前，政策应维持不变

英伦银行副行长Breeden放话：信息未足前利率先按兵不动，第二轮通胀风险降。4月成关键。英镑或获支撑，期权与SONIA交易或迎机会。

26

Mar 2026

WTI原油在92美元附近企稳；中东紧张局势与强势美元限制涨幅

油价守在92美元，伊朗与中东紧张推高风险溢价但动能有限。美元强势压制涨幅，EIA去库撑价。OVX高企，宜卖权利金、价差策略并备Put对冲。

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