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Live Updates

27

Mar 2026

3月，美国密歇根消费者预期指数报51.7，低于预期的54.1

密歇根消费者预期指数3月跌至51.7逊预期，家庭转趋悲观或领先消费放缓。冲击“高利率更久”论调，年底降息机率升；股市波动或回升，偏防守与做多波动。

27

Mar 2026

密歇根大学报告：美国5年期消费者通胀预期3月持平于3.2%，符合预期

美国5年通胀预期3月持平3.2%符预期，短期不确定性降、隐波或回落。美联储料维持higher for longer；策略转向卖权利金、SPX区间如铁鹰，别赌激进降息。

27

Mar 2026

3月，美国密歇根消费者信心指数报53.3，低于预期的54

密歇根消费者信心3月跌至53.3、低于预期，叠加零售下滑与核心通胀顽固，恐慌指数或上行。投资者可用SPY认沽对冲，谨慎可选消费，偏防御板块。

27

Mar 2026

德国商业银行斯塔默称，伊朗战争引发的能源冲击将令欧元区通胀在2026年升至逾3%，并于2027年逼近2%

霍尔木兹几近封锁推高油气与物流成本，德商银行上调欧元区通胀：2026年整体或破3%、核心顶2.4%。潜在机遇在近月油气期权；欧央行降息恐延后，考虑卖出Euribor期货。

27

Mar 2026

BBH的Elias Haddad表示，油价上涨与资产下跌加剧风险情绪恶化，通过融资需求推升美元

油价飙升牵动全球风险情绪急转弱：股债齐跌、美元普遍走强。BBH警告伊朗冲突恐酿长期能源冲击，推升美元融资压力、迫央行维持紧缩，政府债务与金融稳定风险升温。

27

Mar 2026

三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）Halpenny 预计霍尔木兹海峡将受限，因特朗普限制暂停能源袭击措施，且伊朗对油轮仅作最低限度表态

MUFG警告停火仅至4月6日且限能源，霍尔木兹续受限恐拖长冲突。布伦特料走高，严重情境飙至120-160美元；风险厌恶升温，股市受压，DXY或上探105。

27

Mar 2026

丰业银行策略师称，在大宗商品支撑下，加元兑美元略为坚挺

4月季节性利好加元：虽风险偏好低迷，商品货币获买盘。技术面却见USD/CAD突破200日线1.3806，动能偏强，或上探1.39；支撑1.3790/00、1.3750/60。

27

Mar 2026

北欧联合银行（Nordea）Jan von Gerich：股市下跌未能推升美元，削弱其避险地位

股市跌未推升美元，避险光环褪色！中东风险下，油价与债息更敏感；黄金、瑞郎成新避险。期权波动或高估，策略宜转向原油波动与交叉盘。

27

Mar 2026

美元/加元守在1.3850上方，因伊朗战争忧虑持续升温，美元兑加元走强

USD/CAD连涨五天冲上1.3860，两月高位！中东冲突风险升温，资金涌美元避险；联储转鹰、加央行偏鸽，油价涨也难救加元。

27

Mar 2026

克里斯·特纳称，受局势升级担忧、金融环境趋紧、主权财富基金减少配置及市场计入欧洲央行更鹰派立场影响，欧元/美元持续承压

中东局势恐升级、美军增兵推升避险，全球融资更紧；主权财富基金或因收入降与财政支出增而缩海外债券投资，进一步收紧流动性，欧元/美元承压，恐破1.1485回测1.1410/30。

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