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Live Updates

27

Mar 2026

荷兰合作银行称，墨西哥央行（Banxico）谨慎小幅降息至6.75%，以微弱优势通过，另有两名副行长反对宽松

抢先降息却更担忧通胀：墨西哥央行3月26日降息25bp至6.75%，两委员反对。受中东战争风险影响，上调通胀路径至2026年第三季仍≥4%，目标3%延至2027年第二季。

27

Mar 2026

大华银行郭斯良指出，澳元/美元走弱，跌破上升楔形形态并测试一目均衡表基准线0.6870

澳元/美元跌破上升楔形下沿，空头格局或延续至2026年4月。0.6850/0.6870成关键生死线，失守恐测0.6765；美通胀偏强、RBA降息预期与铁矿下挫齐施压。

27

Mar 2026

受中东冲突引发的谨慎情绪影响，澳元小幅走高，兑美元在0.6900附近跑赢其他主要货币

澳元逆市走强守0.6900！避险主导但中东降温憧憬缓和紧张；市场押注澳洲联储或更快加息，5月加息概率68%，年底利率或见4.75%。

27

Mar 2026

2月墨西哥经季节性调整后的贸易逆差收窄，从12.48亿美元改善至10.90亿美元

墨西哥2月贸易逆差收窄至-10.9亿美元，释放比索利好：出口增强或进口降温，nearshoring与FDI转产出。利差逾550bp撑套息，低波动率下可布局USD/MXN看跌期权。

27

Mar 2026

2月墨西哥失业率符合预期，维持在2.6%不变

墨西哥2月失业率2.6%符合预期，市场难掀波澜：隐波或维持低位，期权卖方占优；Banxico缺乏急降息理由，“higher for longer”支撑超级比索，USDMXN料守17.50以下。

27

Mar 2026

墨西哥2月贸易收支录得4.63亿美元逆差，不及预期（原预计为12亿美元顺差）

墨西哥2月贸易收支意外转为逆差-4.63亿美元，远逊预期顺差12亿美元；基本面转弱恐压比索，USD/MXN或上行，留意期权波动与降息风险。

27

Mar 2026

德意志银行Raja预计英国数据平稳，关注3月DMP对伊朗、通胀与招聘的看法，GDP料保持稳定

英国本周数据清淡，焦点转向英国央行DMP：通胀预期或飙升——1个月近4%、1年3.9%、3年3%，招聘降温；GDP仅0.1%温和，利率与英镑随预期波动。

27

Mar 2026

穆勒指出，在评估第二轮通胀效应后，持久战或将迫使欧洲央行采取行动并调整政策

能源价高企恐触发“第二轮通胀”，ECB穆勒称无需等完全显现才动手；将盯4月就业、薪资与通胀数据。核心通胀偏高，市场波动与加息押注升温。

27

Mar 2026

干预担忧推动美元/日元逼近160.00，美元走强并跑赢其他货币，包括避险日元

美元/日元逼近160关口引爆市场：油价与中东局势推升美元强势，日本或再干预。期权波动飙升，交易员押注突破或急跌两种大行情。

27

Mar 2026

印度外汇储备从7,097.6亿美元降至6,983.5亿美元，反映近期下滑

印度外储单周暴跌114.1亿美元至6983.5亿，近一年最大跌幅！或显示RBI抛美元撑卢比；在美元走强、油价上行下，USD/INR波动料升温。

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