Live Updates

23

Jul 2026

美元/日元守在163.95附近，美国初请失业金人数下滑；焦点转向日本CPI与对冲策略

美元/日元守在163.90上方，因美初请失业金创新低推升美元与美债收益率。日内盯日本CPI。RSI超买慎追高，可用163看跌对冲或敲出看涨搏破165。

23

Jul 2026

堪萨斯城联储制造业指数7月回落，显示动能趋软，利率预期或现降温

堪萨斯城联储7月制造业指数降至17，扩张仍在但动能转弱。软着陆迹象令波动率或回落：关注SOFR期货看涨期权、股指卖虚值认沽赚权利金，并紧盯ISM验证。

23

Jul 2026

欧洲央行将利率维持在2.25%，拉加德在市场预期9月加息前保留政策选项

ECB 7月按兵不动、存款利率守2.25%，拉加德保留“完全选择权”。市场反应淡，或低估9月再加25bp至2.50%。趁低波动率，布局€STR/EONIA掉期与9月Euribor认沽捕捉上行。

23

Jul 2026

市场严阵以待美国经济分析局（BEA）修订核心PCE编制方法，对通胀趋势影响料有限

9月30日BEA修订PCE方法：投资组合管理、法律与软件仅占3.67%，或令2026年5月核心PCE同比“下修”约15基点。警惕算法误读引发债券短期错价，伺机逆向交易。

23

Jul 2026

霍尔木兹局势紧张推升供应忧虑，期权交易员转向价差策略，WTI突破90美元

油价暴冲！WTI 升破 90 美元、月涨近三成，中东冲突与海峡航运风险推高断供忧虑。技术偏多但 RSI 超买，慎追涨；可用牛市价差控险，回调再布局。

23

Jul 2026

道明证券认为油价推动的7月美联储加息定价被高估，建议做多7月OIS接收端

油价走高与美伊紧张推升7月加息定价至8bp，TD Securities称市场或过度付溢价，建议接收7月OIS；10年美债4.66%-4.69%，阻力4.81%与5%。

23

Jul 2026

欧元/英镑走低：欧洲央行维持利率不变，市场计入9月加息预期，能源与英国不确定性升温

ECB按兵不动后EUR/GBP冲高0.8544回落至0.8530；能源与中东冲突推升9月加息定价、波动或放大。低隐波下可买短期跨式/宽跨式，配合油价与利差对冲。

23

Jul 2026

德国商业银行预计，随着美元走软拖累美元/墨西哥比索（USD/MXN）走低，市场对墨西哥央行（Banxico）加息的押注将逐步退潮

德国商业银行警告：市场高估Banxico未来一年三次加息，墨西哥通胀与增长转弱，收紧空间有限；一旦预期出清比索或承压，但若美联储鹰派预期退潮美元走弱，USD/MXN料下行。

23

Jul 2026

拉加德暗示欧洲央行一致同意按兵不动，7月加息讨论升温恐加剧数据驱动的波动风险

拉加德称7月利率按兵不动一致通过，但有人提议加息；欧央行拒给前瞻指引、紧盯二轮效应。9月前数据密集，€STR波动或飙：用Euribor虚值payer及短跨式对冲。

23

Jul 2026

拉加德称欧央行维持利率不变，能源与气候风险令通胀仍偏上行

拉加德发出警讯：ECB 7月按兵不动，但通胀风险仍偏上行。能源价若长期高企恐引爆二轮效应；极端天气推高食品价，油价回落仍待评估。

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