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Live Updates

29

Jul 2026

英镑/日元徘徊于217.50附近，英镑在英伦银行与日本央行决议前走软

英镑/日元站稳217.50附近却偏弱：英镑情绪降温、财政忧虑重燃；日元仍受利差与能源冲击压制。央行议息前波动升温，宜区间策略+买入看跌对冲，关注218.50/217.48关键位。

29

Jul 2026

英镑跌破1.3300，受美联储与英伦银行政策分歧及英国财政忧虑拖累

英镑兑美元回落至1.3300下方，两周跌1.2%。聚焦美联储偏鹰与英央行或更鸽，加上财政计划引爆再度忧虑：做空英镑、买入看跌期权。

29

Jul 2026

布朗兄弟哈里曼认为：美联储将按期货定价所示维持利率，并关注美元波动

今夜FOMC大概率第五次按兵不动（3.50%–3.75%），但加息概率仍逾30%。若美元先跌后随鹰派沟通反弹，可用短期期权逢低布局，并考虑做空联邦基金期货。

29

Jul 2026

德国商业银行模型显示：随着瑞士央行容忍瑞郎走弱，欧元驱动的传导效应将限制瑞士通胀

瑞商行模型指SNB更容忍弱瑞郎：欧元计价贸易传导短期为美元3.8倍。瑞郎贬值12个月推通胀仅+0.18pp，利差撑EUR/CHF。低波动下宜买EUR/CHF看涨期权布局。

29

Jul 2026

美联储决议在即与中东紧张局势推升油价，黄金守住4,000美元上方

黄金守住4,000却反复：联储决议与中东升级推高油价、美元偏稳。技术面偏空，4,000一旦失守恐下探3,850；期权策略建议看跌价差或跨式对冲波动。

29

Jul 2026

欧元/美元持稳于1.1400下方，市场聚焦美联储决议且下行风险仍存

欧元/美元徘徊1.1390、受压1.1400：美联储决议成引爆点。市场计入35%意外加息，美元转强恐破1.1324，期权策略偏买虚值看跌/熊市价差，关注1.1245与1.1210。

29

Jul 2026

油价上涨：胡塞武装考虑红海通行费，并可能对中国给予豁免，正值曼德海峡关闭之际

红海再掀风暴：胡塞考虑向商船收费、或豁免中国船队，曼德海峡封锁牵动全球7%能源供应。油价走高，WTI逼近82.20美元，衍生品与运费套利机会浮现。

29

Jul 2026

亚马逊股价关注213至200支撑位，业绩前波动加剧之际C浪回调或将来袭

亚马逊五浪下跌引爆警报：C浪修正或下探213–200支撑，重点看213缺口。7/30财报料放大约6.5%波动；跌破200恐确认大周期见顶，偏空期权可布局。

29

Jul 2026

美联储决议临近，金价守在4,000美元附近；紧缩政策预期限制上行空间

美联储决议前，金价4,000美元关口拉锯：美元走弱与地缘风险托底，但鹰派预期压制反弹。策略：短期期权做多跨式，跌破3,950防守，OTM看涨对冲突发上冲。

29

Jul 2026

欧元/美元料正在筑底，鸽派美联储重新定价与风险情绪推动汇价反弹逼近1.15

欧元/美元疑似筑底反弹：若FOMC偏鸽、风险情绪稳定，有望回到1.1400–1.1450并挑战1.15；惟地缘冲突与芯片震荡仍限涨，宜期权+紧止损控风险。

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