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30

Jul 2026

美国6月PCE通胀降温，美元持稳，市场聚焦区间震荡交易

美国6月PCE通胀降温：总体3.7%、核心3.3%齐符预期，美元横盘。低波动利好EUR/USD铁鹰卖权利金；利率偏好跨期/蝶式；VIX低位可买标普保护性看跌。

30

Jul 2026

纳斯达克测试关键支撑位，尽管微软与Meta业绩喜忧参半，韩国综合指数（KOSPI）与费城半导体指数（SOXX）仍走跌

科技股急挫冲击亚洲！KOSPI较6月高点回撤44%、SOXX跌30%、纳指破50EMA逼近关键支撑；微软强财报难救情绪，库存升温放大波动，期权对冲成焦点。

30

Jul 2026

美国核心PCE通胀维持在3.3%，强化美联储按兵不动预期并利好卖出波动率策略

美国6月核心PCE同比3.3%贴合预期，通胀路径趋稳但仍高于目标。无惊喜催生VIX回落，适合押注波动率挤压：卖SPY/QQQ虚值跨式、宽跨式，短天期更佳。

30

Jul 2026

美国6月PCE通胀维持在3.7%，强化市场对联储“暂停加息”的预期

美国6月PCE同比3.7%符合预期：通胀顽固但无惊喜，美联储料继续按兵不动。交易员可趁低波动卖波动率，并用国债期货押注收益率曲线趋平。

30

Jul 2026

美国6月个人支出增长0.3%，符合预期，支撑“软着陆”叙事

美国6月PCE支出升0.3%符预期，消费韧性但不热。惊喜有限，市场转看通胀与就业。波动率或走低：卖权利金；利率盘整；消费ETF看涨价差。

30

Jul 2026

美国四周初请失业金人数均值降至20.275万，强化偏鹰利率前景与美元买盘

美国初请失业金四周均值降至20.275万，劳动力市场仍紧俏。降息预期或再延后，美债收益率与美元获支撑；策略关注做空美债、买DXY看涨、股指价差及利率敏感板块保护性看跌。

30

Jul 2026

美联储按兵不动，反对声浪升温；沃什对9月动向未置可否，美元走软

联储按兵不动却现三票反对，沃什拒给9月指引令加息概率降至五五开；美元与两年债收益率走软，DXY 100.300成多空关键，期权偏布局看跌。

30

Jul 2026

英伦银行维持利率在3.75%不变，贝利称下行情景概率下降，海湾局势不确定性升温

英伦银行利率维持3.75%，6:3投票按兵不动；贝利称通胀低于预期鼓舞，但中央情境概率偏低，叠加海湾局势不确定，市场需警惕波动。

30

Jul 2026

英镑走软：英格兰银行维持利率不变，但投票分歧偏向鸽派

英镑在BoE按兵不动但投票更偏鸽后走弱，GBP/USD回落至1.3380。衍生品策略：关注做空英镑，买1.3200认沽；做多2026年12月SONIA，止损1.3420。

30

Jul 2026

墨西哥第二季GDP优于预期，提振比索前景并改变降息预期

墨西哥Q2 GDP同比2.2%大超预期1.5%，经济韧性或推迟降息。比索获利多，建议买USD/MXN看跌；TIIE掉期付固定、IPC看涨，债券用看跌对冲。

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