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Live Updates

4

Aug 2026

尽管OPEC+供应计划在即，中东紧张局势支撑风险溢价，WTI小幅走高

WTI 回升至 79.40 美元但犹豫：中东冲突、霍尔木兹与胡塞扰动支撑风险溢价，OPEC+ 9月增产压制上行。交易上宜区间策略，关注隐波飙升与82上方收息。

4

Aug 2026

欧元/美元回落至接近1.1500，霍尔木兹紧张局势与美国非农数据临近，期权市场关注突破走势

欧元/美元连跌守1.1500：中东风险撑美元、油价牵动汇率。周五非农成催化剂，建议短期跨式押波动，布油虚值看涨对冲，并盯1.1480触发CTA卖盘。

4

Aug 2026

贝莱德推出代币化货币市场基金，为衍生品市场带来可生息抵押品

贝莱德推两只链上货币市场基金BSTBL与BRSRV，合规代币化美债现金资产，可作GENIUS法案“储备资产”。衍生品保证金或转向带收益，提升资本效率并平抑隔夜波动。

4

Aug 2026

爱尔兰AIB制造业PMI 7月升至55.1，支撑欧元及利率前景

爱尔兰AIB制造业PMI升至55.1，稳守扩张区间；韧性增强或力挺欧元并推迟欧洲央行降息预期，衍生品可关注做多EUR/USD与利率对冲机会。

4

Aug 2026

伊朗警告勿开辟第二条霍尔木兹海峡航道，油市严阵以待波动加剧

伊朗警告封杀霍尔木兹“第二航道”，威胁打击军舰；油市供应中断风险飙升。WTI约80.50美元，宜布局原油看涨/跨式、黄金与美元避险，并以标普看跌对冲。

4

Aug 2026

韩国7月CPI下滑0.2%，助长降息押注，并牵动韩元、债券与股市交易

韩国7月CPI按月跌0.2%爆冷，较预期低0.3个百分点，通胀动能转弱。降息押注升温：可布局做多KTB期货、USD/KRW与KOSPI200看涨期权。

4

Aug 2026

韩国7月CPI同比上涨2.8%，低于3%预期

韩国7月CPI按年升2.8%，低于3%预期，通胀放缓超市场共识；物价压力趋缓，或重塑夏末通胀与政策押注，牵动利率、汇率与资产风险偏好走势。

4

Aug 2026

受干预传闻与美国数据提振美元，美元/瑞郎反弹至0.8100

美元兑瑞郎周一反弹0.27%至0.8100，传美日干预与美伊停火撑美元。守50日均线偏多；上破0.8150看0.8207，失守0.8037恐探0.7954。

4

Aug 2026

纽元/美元守在0.5870附近，美国数据提振美元，纽西兰就业报告发布前市场观望

纽美0.5870胶着：美元因ISM制造业PMI跳升走强，美债息上行；油价回落撑风险偏好。聚焦纽西兰就业/工资与中国服务业PMI，或引爆突破，期权宜跨式+下行保护。

4

Aug 2026

在美伊会谈希望缓解风险溢价之际，油价下挫；美国工厂指标优于预期带动美元走强

油价因美伊重启谈判预期崩跌7.4%，美元随ISM走强；黄金守4,000。策略：WTI熊市认沽价差、黄金长看涨；做空美日、逢高空英镑，并买澳纽认沽迎数据。

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