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4

Aug 2026

墨西哥7月消费者信心回升，加大对墨西哥央行降息压力，并支撑比索利差交易

墨西哥7月消费者信心升至45、超预期，需求回暖信号浮现。Banxico或难激进降息，利差继续撑比索。策略：买USD/MXN看跌、EWW看涨期权。

4

Aug 2026

贝森特释放霍尔木兹海峡重启通航谈判信号，地缘溢价回落拖累WTI走低

贝森特称霍尔木兹海峡重开谈判最快周三落地，油市风险溢价或加速回吐。WTI已跌3.29%至76美元，或下探72；OVX料回落，卖权利金与认沽价差布局，但防协议延误挤空。

4

Aug 2026

特朗普团队考虑动用美联储FIMA回购机制支撑日元，并遏制美国国债市场动荡

特朗普拟促美联储以FIMA回购助日本护日元，避免为干预抛美债推高收益率。日元逼近164后回升。策略：谨慎做多波动、看空欧元，关注FOMC扩容。

4

Aug 2026

美国与日本出手支撑日元，套利交易平仓恐引发全球流动性剧烈波动

日元跌破40年低点引爆市场：美日罕见联手干预、动用ESF并倚重FIMA供美元。套利交易平仓或致流动性挤压，衍生品宜做多波动、降杠杆防黑天鹅。

4

Aug 2026

美元/日元测试158附近的200日均线，干预风险限制涨势，日本资金供给料充裕

美元/日元反弹逼近200日均线158.02，但美日协同干预警告设上限。日本可用FIMA以美债抵押筹资，无需抛售。策略：逢高做空，偏好USD看跌期权。

4

Aug 2026

美元兑瑞郎下挫至接近0.8100，美国就业数据与伊朗局势消息临近

美伊谈判憧憬提振风险偏好，美元/瑞郎仍难稳0.8100！技术面现头肩顶隐忧，聚焦JOLTS与非农定方向；失守0.8040恐加速下跌。

4

Aug 2026

大华银行：美元指数料跌破关键均线，但仍受困于97.63至101.64区间

美元指数失守周线云层并跌破55周EMA，多头形态告破。UOB料短期偏空但将区间震荡于97.63–101.64，建议以期权区间策略把握波动。

4

Aug 2026

日元因美国可能出手干预的传言而飙升，聚焦日本持有的美国国债及更广泛的市场涟漪

美国传拟买最多100亿美元日元引爆急升，USDJPY下挫；焦点转向日本1万亿美元美债或被抛售风险。EURAUD现双顶警讯，白银区间盘整，油价受冲突剧震，美股续创新高。

4

Aug 2026

澳元兑美元料维持区间震荡，0.7075限制涨幅，市场聚焦澳洲联储决议前走势

澳元兑美元急挫后被指“跌过头”，短线料在0.6980-0.7030区间震荡，阻力0.7075。RBA议息或放大波动；跌破0.6980则上行动能转弱。

4

Aug 2026

美元指数守在100附近，霍尔木兹紧张局势与美联储加息押注支撑需求

美元指数逼近100关口续强，特朗普对伊朗“最后机会”推升避险；市场押注9月加息概率65%。策略：买美元看涨、原油牛差、股指价外看跌期权防震荡。

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