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Live Updates

5

Aug 2026

在重启霍尔木兹海峡谈判缓解供应担忧、美国股市上涨之际，WTI跌向74美元

霍尔木兹海峡重开曙光令 WTI 回落至 73.80 美元；美油库存意外累增加剧下行。策略：卖 Call、熊市认沽价差/日历价差；留意 SPR 低位支撑与波动收缩。

5

Aug 2026

印度央行料维持回购利率在5.25%，卢比关注资金流入与美元/印度卢比阻力位

周三RBI料按兵不动：回购利率维持5.25%，通胀4.4%仍在目标内。外资与FCNR流入偏强，USD/INR技术偏空，关注94.80支撑、96.00阻力。

5

Aug 2026

堪萨斯城联储施密德警告通胀仍令人担忧，并指AI支出或成推升物价的潜在推手

堪城联储施密德警告通胀仍高、政策不够紧，AI投资或推升物价；美元短线反应淡，但鹰派信号或逼市场重定价，利多DXY与美元期权。

5

Aug 2026

干预后欧元/日元反弹，但收益率利差与技术面令下行压力仍成焦点

EUR/JPY干预后反弹至181.90仍偏空：RSI下滑、受阻200日均线183.74。若失守180恐探179.30/178.82；站上182才有望回183。建议空头或买put。

5

Aug 2026

新西兰失业率升至5.6%，降息押注升温打压纽元

失业率意外跳升冲击纽元！纽西兰次季失业率升至5.6%高于预期，NZD/USD走弱；就业增0.5%难吸纳参与率上扬，市场押注RBNZ更激进降息。

5

Aug 2026

新西兰工资增长超预期，提振纽元并强化利率“更高更久”展望

纽西兰次季LCI按季升0.7%胜预期，工资通胀黏性增强，RBNZ或更久维持高利率；纽元偏强，考虑NZD/USD看涨、付固定两年掉期、做空票据期货及AUD/NZD空头。

5

Aug 2026

日本—美国支撑日元干预被视为暂时性，期权交易员瞄准美元/日元波动率

美日联手干预力挺日元，料USD/JPY短期波动飙升。可用买入跨式捕捉震荡；干预或难逆强美元趋势，趁回调布局长期看涨期权，并以远期对冲进口成本风险。

5

Aug 2026

中国工厂调查显示增长动能降温，强化市场对人民银行宽松及人民币走弱的押注

私营制造业PMI跌至四个月低位、官方PMI仍收缩，工厂动能同步转弱；市场押注降LPR与降准升温，人民币承压。策略：买USD/CNH看涨、利率互换付固收浮。

4

Aug 2026

印尼6月贸易逆差收窄，进口激增重燃“双赤字”忧虑，冲击印尼盾市场

印尼6月贸易逆差收窄靠非油气出口，但进口与财政赤字升温，双赤字风险牵动IDR与利率波动。短线建议期权远期对冲；长线下游化吸金，股指期货可做牛市价差。

4

Aug 2026

加元料趋坚，美元/加元跌破1.3970，逢高看跌策略受青睐

美元转弱与加国数据改善下，加元仍落后G10。丰业估USD/CAD公允1.3930；跌破1.3970或奔1.38。策略：反弹1.41买Put捕捉回落。

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