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Live Updates

19

Aug 2026

美元/日元持稳于159.60附近，霍尔木兹紧张局势推升美元需求，尽管美国数据喜忧参半

美元/日元守稳159.60，霍尔木兹紧张推升美元避险，日元承压。数据喜忧参半。技术阻力159.69-159.73，突破或冲160。策略：短期call、牛市价差。关注干预风险。

19

Aug 2026

印尼2027年预算在盾汇与债券收益率风险下，力争6%增长、赤字率2.4%

2027印尼预算用Rp17,500/美元、GDP增6%、赤字2.4%求稳，但暗示美元强与融资偏紧。交易员可备美元/盾期权、远期对冲，并关注10年债6.9%与互换、期货空头机会。

19

Aug 2026

美元指数随全球收益率同步上升而走低，市场对美联储按兵不动的押注升温

美债收益率飙至20年高位，美元指数却无力上攻：全球收益率同步上行稀释利差，美国数据转弱与降息预期升温。DXY受压99.75，宜偏空看99.25/98.75。

19

Aug 2026

道琼斯指数下挫，因美联储加息概率降温但长端美债收益率飙升，令房市与股市承压

长端收益率飙升压制风险资产：30年美债约5.3%、道指回落至53,400点。市场淡化12月加息，但房市转弱、油价破85。策略：偏空道指、做弱地产、偏多能源。

18

Aug 2026

欧元/英镑回落至0.8550附近，ZEW提振效应消退，英国CPI临近

EUR/GBP回落近0.8550，德欧ZEW利好难续涨势。英国失业率偏高、就业放缓，市场紧盯周三英国CPI（料2.9%）。技术面阻力0.8553/0.8559，支撑0.8551。

18

Aug 2026

纽元/美元跌向0.5880，伊朗局势紧张推升美元，市场关注美联储会议纪要

美伊局势升温压低风险偏好，纽美跌至0.5880；FedWatch加息概率降至35%，聚焦FOMC纪要。RBNZ或加息但通胀降温，建议期权对冲波动。

18

Aug 2026

英镑持稳：中东风险抵消美国疲弱数据，市场静待英国CPI与联储会议纪要

英镑守在1.3547：中东紧张拉扯偏弱美数据。英失业升温，周三CPI与FOMC纪要成关键。建议牛市价差看1.3603，回撤1.3502/1.3414布局，1.3381止损。

18

Aug 2026

道明证券预计：供应偏紧、霍尔木兹海峡风险及成品油库存偏低将支撑布伦特油价维持在90美元以上

油市供给缺口扩大、霍尔木兹风险未解，TD 料布伦特高位续航至 2026。三个月或再涨 5–10 美元，重返三位数概率高；建议买看涨、做多波动与裂解价差。

18

Aug 2026

丰业银行预计美元/加元接近1.3870，利差收窄且油价支撑加元，偏空看待

美元/加元近1.3870接近均衡，丰业银行看空：利差收窄与油价韧性撑加元。技术指向1.3817、甚至1.35-1.37。反弹到1.39宜做空，1.40/25止损。

18

Aug 2026

美国7月待完成房屋销售下滑2.2%，强化美联储降息预期并提振债券需求

美国7月待完成房屋销售按年跌幅扩大至-2.2%，楼市降温超预期！交易管道萎缩推升激进降息押注：多10年期美债、SOFR；XHB买Put、REIT卖Call；做空美元或买欧元看涨。

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