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Live Updates

30

Aug 2026

沃什在杰克逊霍尔发出警告，利率、大宗商品与加密货币动向牵动市场，股市承压

沃什鹰派警告通胀或再加息，美股周五回吐但周线仍升；纳指受英伟达领跑。欧亚股分化；金债偏弱、油回稳、币圈持平。更离奇：月食与“地宇宙”星象被拿来解读以太坊与中国股市。

30

Aug 2026

标普500指数升破0.618弧线，偏多看向0.786水平，除非7,650失守

标普500一小时弧线周期转强，价格突破0.618并向0.786“迁移”，中段扩张或上看7,790。关键守备7,650；若持续跌破，转入前一周期重估。

30

Aug 2026

COT极端值预示澳元、天然气与贵金属持仓或现反转信号

商业COT逼近极值：澳元97%、天然气94%逆向做多窗口浮现；金银指数0%但投机巨量净多，跌势恐未止。欧元、加元偏高或转势盘整。

29

Aug 2026

韩国央行在韩元走强、美元兑韩元汇率盘整之际，将基准利率上调至3.0%

韩国央行续升息至3%，点阵图仍偏鹰，或再加25bp。韩元走强后料趋缓，USD/KRW看1,360-1,400盘整；可用铁鹰卖权利金，1,400买Put。

29

Aug 2026

由于零售需求保持稳定且通胀维持在4.4%，越南8月出口预计增长27%

越南8月出口料同比飙27%、电子领涨，零售与旅游消费续强；通胀维持4.4%但黏性。衍生品策略：做多VND、USD/VND远期/期权，布局VN30与消费电子看涨，对冲短债与利率高企。

29

Aug 2026

韩国央行释出放缓紧缩信号，韩元升势消退并回归美元/韩元（USD/KRW）盘整区间

韩央行连两次加息至3.0%，前置收紧近尾声，后续或放慢并暂停。韩元升12%后料转盘整，USD/KRW看1,360–1,400；期权偏区间策略，期货逢1,400做空美元。

29

Aug 2026

菲律宾央行将政策利率上调至5.0%，因比索落后东盟同业且紧缩倾向持续

菲律宾央行升息25基点至5%稳通胀、撑比索；3Q26比索独弱跌0.8%。市场押注或再加息，建议用短期期权、远期与利率互换捕捉波动与收益。

29

Aug 2026

星展银行预计马来西亚国家银行将隔夜政策利率维持在2.75%，通胀令政策保持中性

别急着押注加息！DBS料BNM 9月3日维持OPR 2.75%，通胀7月降至1.8%仍受控、增长约5%；建议布局中性：IRS收固定、做多MGS。

29

Aug 2026

墨西哥比索走软，沃什言论提振美元并改变加息预期定价

沃什杰克逊霍尔放鹰，美元急升压低墨西哥比索，USD/MXN重返17关口但受阻17.31。利差仍利多套息，聚焦美非农与墨财数据引爆波动。

29

Aug 2026

标普500指数面临9月季节性拖累，7,638支撑位失守或将焦点转向7,120

9月历来是标普500最弱月份：均值-1.2%、56%收跌；2026期中选举年或加剧，失守7,638恐快速回撤6%至7,100–7,200。期权可用保护性认沽/价差对冲。

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