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Live Updates

25

May 2026

欧元/加元延续四连涨，油价走软打压加元，市场押注欧洲央行加息支撑欧元

欧元/加元连涨至1.6080：油价回落拖累“商品货币”加元，美伊协议若重开霍尔木兹或再压油价；叠加ECB 6月加息预期，期权偏多机会浮现。

25

May 2026

ING预计新西兰联储将鹰派按兵不动，市场已计入7月加息，新西兰元受全球因素驱动

纽元或迎大波动：ING料RBNZ 5月27日按兵不动但放鹰，市场低估意外加息；暗示3Q收紧、7月起两次各25bp。期权隐波走高，外部因素仍主导。

25

May 2026

高市拟通过追加预算与赤字国债为今夏电费上限提供资金，日元徘徊在159附近

日本拟追加逾3万亿日元预算、电煤补贴靠新赤字国债买单。虽称税收抵消、降债务比，但财纪疑虑升温；美日利差压日元，策略转买USD/JPY看涨期权。

25

May 2026

欧元走强逼近185日元，市场押注欧洲央行6月加息，能源风险升温

欧元兑日元升至185，市场押注ECB 6月加息概率逾90%，能源风险与通胀回升强化鹰派；BoJ观望、东京CPI偏弱压日元。可用买入看涨或牛市价差捕捉上行。

25

May 2026

瑞郎走强，美元/瑞郎因美伊协议希望与美联储利率前景转变而走低

美伊和谈憧憬+假期流动性偏低，美元/瑞郎跌破0.7820；但加息预期与本周PCE或触发反弹。隐波升至8.5%，更宜布局宽跨式捕捉波动。

25

May 2026

市场押注6月加息，ECB会议纪要料将厘清偏紧缩立场，进而影响欧元兑美元前景

会议纪要将揭示ECB是否仍偏紧缩。增长疲弱+通胀黏性或压欧元；市场仍押注6月加息25bp。美欧增速差撑美元，EUR/USD或趋1.04，宜用看跌期权/价差布局。

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