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3

Jul 2026

中国人民银行将美元/人民币中间价定得较预期更强，暗示在增长放缓背景下维持人民币有序偏强走势

央行中间价定6.8047显著弱于预期，释放“控升值、偏稳偏弱”信号。GDP与出口走弱下或压波动：卖波动、布局长久期USD/CNH看涨更合拍。

3

Jul 2026

英镑/美元走高，疲弱美国非农削弱美元；市场聚焦英银加息押注与英国政局

非农仅增5.7万拖累美元，GBP/USD升至1.3350；美联储9月加息概率降至52%。英政局动荡+央行偏鹰推升波动，期权押注1.3450成焦点。

3

Jul 2026

受美伊关系缓和降温风险溢价并提振海湾供应流动影响，WTI回落逼近68美元

油价恐续跌：WTI 回落至 68.40 美元；美伊外交缓和、霍尔木兹航运恢复，沙特与阿联酋出口反弹，EIA 库存意外增 380 万桶，供过于求升温。

3

Jul 2026

欧元/美元走低：欧元区通胀降温对比美联储“更高更久”立场

欧元区通胀降温拖累欧元，美元在美国就业数据分化下仍偏强；市场紧盯拉加德讲话与加息路径再定价。策略上关注波动率偏低，布局跨式/看跌，防守下探1.0600。

3

Jul 2026

新西兰6月消费者信心回升，考验纽央行降息预期并提振纽元前景

新西兰消费者信心6月反弹至91.3，家庭悲观降温。或推高RBNZ鹰派预期、压降降息押注，纽元与零售、NZX50存机会；惟仍低于100，二季度通胀成关键。

3

Jul 2026

中国允许人民币相对北亚货币走强以抑制芯片进口成本，削弱低估指控

人民币今年主动走强，兑韩元近升11%，压低芯片进口成本。北亚HS85进口暴增、资金回流助势；但属阶段窗口，未来或反转，期权策略可攻守兼备。

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