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6

Jul 2026

标普500指数测试6月趋势线，季节性利好7月向7,700点突破

标普500或复制夏季节奏：6月盘整后盛夏冲破趋势线，目标7700。若逼近7700宜获利转防守；夏末或回调至7200-7100支撑，再迎新升浪。

6

Jul 2026

美元/加元延续涨势，因市场押注美联储收紧政策及贸易不确定性施压加元

美元强势与美加政策分化主导，USD/CAD 连涨至1.4230并看向1.4350/1.4500。油价坚挺难撑加元，OPEC+增产添供应忧。USMCA不确定性压制，策略偏买看涨期权。

6

Jul 2026

欧元/美元在美元普遍走强下走低；市场预计欧洲央行按兵不动，卖出波动率策略受青睐

EUR/USD 跌至 1.1418，美元走强压制欧元；欧数据平稳、德订单亮眼难扭转。ECB 7 月料按兵不动，9 月加息概率 50%。区间 1.13–1.21，偏卖波动率。

6

Jul 2026

道明证券预计美国经济增长将持平至2026年，伊朗石油风险令美联储按兵不动

美银增速料至2026年横盘：GDP约2%、失业率4.3%。伊朗冲突推油价或致滞胀；通胀黏性、联储按兵不动。衰退概率25%，建议原油多头与指数认沽对冲、波动交易。

6

Jul 2026

标普500涨势系于三只存储股，美光领跑2026年升势

别被“全面上涨”骗了：2026年至今标普500约四分之一涨幅来自三家存储器股，美光最猛。动能可买短期看涨期权；同时低VIX下用SPY看跌或跨式便宜对冲。

6

Jul 2026

VanEck 初级金矿商 ETF 走低，艾略特波浪显示回调或将加深

想抄底小金矿？先等等：GDXJ仍在（III）浪IV修正，“双三”或再探49.26–82.69美元。金价转弱与成本压力加剧，策略偏买远期Put或熊市价差控费。

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