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Live Updates

8

Jul 2026

新西兰央行将官方现金利率上调至2.50%，并释放进一步加息信号，纽元前景趋稳

RBNZ意外鹰派加息至2.50%且一致投票，警示短期再升。OIS仍押注年内再收紧约35-38bp，纽元或走强但2026后转鸽，NZD/USD看0.59。

8

Jul 2026

英镑守住支撑位，市场对英央行加息押注升温；收益率利差与技术面关注1.36

英镑虽回吐0.1%，但BoE紧缩预期重定价、英美利差转优及政局情绪趋稳托底。技术上1.34受压，短线1.33–1.34，仍看延伸上探1.36。

8

Jul 2026

印度6月CPI料为4.1%，尽管WPI与CPI走势分化，印度央行仍维持政策不变

印度6月CPI料回升至4.1%仍在RBI舒适区，食品燃料推升但核心温和。WPI高企传导滞后。政策大概率按兵不动，利率平稳、股市受益，卢比存温贬风险。

8

Jul 2026

特朗普与伊朗紧张局势推升美元与美债收益率，银价在美联储会议纪要公布前下滑

特朗普警告或再打伊朗，推升美元与美债收益率，白银跌至58.45。油价破102美元抬通胀预期，市场押注美联储偏鹰；波动率飙升，建议用期权对冲。

8

Jul 2026

在美伊紧张局势推升油价并强化美联储加息预期之际，欧元/美元守稳于1.1400上方

美伊紧张升级推升油价与通胀忧虑，市场重押美联储9月加息、美元维持强势；EUR/USD 1.1400上方承压，关注FOMC纪要与CPI定方向。

8

Jul 2026

墨西哥遭降级未撼动债券收益率，高实际利率支撑比索套息交易

穆迪降墨西哥至Baa3逼近垃圾级，10年MBono反跌36bp；高于5%实际收益率与21亿美元资金流入撑需求。Banxico料守6.50%，低波动助比索融资套利与卖USD虚值看涨收息。

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