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17

Jul 2026

美元/日元在接近40年高位附近企稳，油价、美联储前景与资金回流风险令日元承压

美元/日元死守近四十年高位：油价升、利差扩与强美元助攻；但3.6万亿美元海外资产若回流，或触发日元急弹。交易者宜用短期期权价差兼顾上行与干预风险。

17

Jul 2026

RBC预计加拿大6月CPI降温至2.8%，央行按兵不动支撑区间震荡交易

加拿大6月CPI料降至2.8%、核心1.6%稳，央行或按兵不动至2026。交易员抓“低波动红利”：卖CORRA近月跨式/铁鹰与加元价外宽跨式，赚时间价值。

17

Jul 2026

美元因避险情绪走强，但DXY恐跌破关键100.5支撑位

避险情绪推高美元但支撑恐短暂：DXY守住100.5止跌仍偏空。OIS高估年内加息，若重定价利差回落，建议反弹做空或买put，伺机破100.5。

17

Jul 2026

美元/瑞郎跌向0.8070，瑞郎避险需求升温及期权波动率上升

USD/CHF 逼近0.8070历史低位：美信心回升撑美元仍敌不过瑞郎避险与中东风险。隐波上扬宜短跨式；警惕SNB干预，配价外看涨及风险逆转布局反弹。

17

Jul 2026

布伦特油价上涨，伊朗威胁封锁曼德海峡收紧供应并引发市场波动

伊朗再喊封锁曼德海峡，原油航运命脉告急！布伦特一周飙近12%，若运输中断恐冲95美元。中国到港回升、现货趋紧，期权与跨期价差交易升温。

17

Jul 2026

富国银行上调2026年全球增长展望，下调通胀预期，因各国央行政策路径分化

油价假设下修，富国银行上调2026全球GDP至2.7%、下调CPI至4.3%。政策分化催生交易：卖油价波动、做多债券、押日元反套息、英镑期权策略、新兴市场配对。

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