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30

Jul 2026

欧元区GDP优于预期、美国增长与PCE通胀放缓，欧元/美元走高

欧元区GDP意外强劲、美国增长与通胀降温，EUR/USD冲上1.1460上方。增长分化或再推后市涨逾3%；策略：牛市价差瞄准1.1550-1.1600。

30

Jul 2026

美国4周国库券收益率回落至3.63%，市场计入美联储更深幅度降息预期

美国4周T-bill中标收益率降至3.63%（前次3.73%），短端下挫10基点。市场押注降息概率飙破80%，建议偏多SOFR期货与指数看涨价差，抢收益率下行红利。

30

Jul 2026

美联储按兵不动，三位鹰派投反对票；长端收益率在杰克逊霍尔年会前走高

FOMC声明几乎复制粘贴却现9-3鹰派分裂，长债飙至5.21%触发熊陡与股市波动；市场下调9月加息押注。关键催化：杰克逊霍尔，宜用SOFR跨式与深度价外期权对冲。

30

Jul 2026

澳元/日元下滑，日元飙升引发干预押注升温，日本央行决议前市场关注度上升

AUD/JPY急跌至111.70，日元疑似干预后全线走强；聚焦日银决议与东京数据。澳洲通胀转弱压低RBA加息预期，建议期权跨式布局波动，并偏空AUD/JPY。

30

Jul 2026

英国央行维持基准利率在3.75%，鹰派立场令降息押注受抑

英伦央行6:3维持利率3.75%并偏鹰，强调提前压通胀。市场或高估降息：建议卖2026年12月SONIA；用一年期通胀掉期对冲；期权铁鹰做空波动率。

30

Jul 2026

中国第二季度GDP不及预期，出口支撑增长但人民币持续承压

中国二季GDP仅增4.3%低于目标，内需与地产拖累、财政偏谨慎。6月略回暖但政策未急转。人民币承压、大宗偏弱，宜期权对冲并备刺激反弹。

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